Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 241922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
322 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Climate/Marine

Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High pressure will continue to control our weather for the next few
days. Record heat is expected Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Cooler
weather will arrive mid week after a strong cold front moves
through. Unfortunately, appreciable rainfall isn`t expected. But,
highs will fall into the 60s by the end of the week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Forecast concerns are minimal this afternoon. Record highs are a
pretty good bet Monday and possibly Tuesday too. We`ll be well into
the 90s Monday with high pressure both at the surface and aloft. The
ridge finally begins to move east Tuesday, but hot temperatures in
upper 80s are still anticipated with records within a degree or two.
The best chance of rain will be late Tuesday as a strong cold front
moves through. Unfortunately, the short wave driving this front will
remain closer to the U.P. and we won`t see much rainfall. The 3km
NAM does show a diminishing line of convection 00z Wednesday just
offshore, but then weakens it as it moves east. So, there`s a chance
we could see some rain, but not a high chance.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

No relief to the drought is in sight. We have a decent shot at some
showers late Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough and
chillier air impacts the region, but highest QPF amounts will
probably be only one tenth to one quarter inch if that.

The push of cold air late in the week looks very short lived. The
upper trough moves out quickly on Friday night with ridging becoming
re-established both aloft and at the sfc Saturday. H8 temps are
progged to be moderating already on Saturday (from the northwest) as
a large surface high settles directly over the region. We get on the
back side of that surface high Sunday, and the return flow should
lead to further warming and continuation of dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

VFR conditions continuing - very high confidence. Can`t rule out
an hour or two of 4-6 mile vsbys in light fog toward sunrise, but
this threat does not look high enough or widespread enough to
have any vsby restrictions in the TAFs.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

No marine issues. High pressure nearby will result in waves aob 1
foot for the next couple of days.


Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Rivers are running around normal to below normal for the time of
year. Meanwhile, the US Drought Monitor is indicating dry conditions
across Southern Lower Michigan. Near-record warmth is expected today
and Monday. The next chance for rain is Wednesday, but it`s not a
good chance. No river issues are expected through the week.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The heat wave will continue into Tuesday and more records are likely
to be set. The following are record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

                    September 25            September 26
Grand Rapids        90 (1920)               89 (1998)
Lansing             91 (1920)               89 (1998)
Muskegon            86 (1920)               86 (1920)




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