Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 281143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
743 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016


Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

High pressure will bring fair weather today but the chance for
rain will return by late tonight and Saturday as low pressure
tracks north of Lower Michigan. As second low will move through
Saturday night bringing more widespread showers and a few


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Forecast issues include chances for thunder Saturday night along
with POPs/QPF into Sunday morning.

Two low centers track through the Great Lakes in rapid succession
tonight through Sunday morning. The first passes north of the
forecast area tonight with low chances for precip confined to the
far northern forecast area. Trailing cold front lays out across
Lower Michigan on Saturday as sfc wave takes shape across the
Southern Plains.

Chances for rain increases Saturday evening as the sfc low moves
towards Lower Michigan. Elevated convection is possible across
the southern half of the forecast area where sfc convergence and
mid level lapse rates are greatest. F-gen forcing increases after
midnight in this area and should bring a stripe of heavier QPF
across the southern zones late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Sfc low moves off to the east by Sunday afternoon with drying and
subsidence as sfc ridging builds in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Chances of rain from the beginning of the long term through Tuesday
night are quite limited. High pressure will have built in over the
area by Sun night behind the frontal system in the short term. Some
low chances of showers and even a storm will come in for Mon night
and early Tue across the north after a very mild and dry day on Mon.
The upper wave supporting the frontal system will stay across Nrn
Michigan. It will take until later Tue for the front to push
entirely through the area. This will allow for a fairly warm day by
early November standards with highs approaching 70.

Any rain chances up north on Tue will disappear by Tue night, but
will reappear everywhere on Wed. The front moving through on Tue
will get hung up just south of the state, and then will move back
north as a warm front on Wed as another short wave and associated
sfc low move into the region. This wave will be a bit more amplified
and further south. This will bring better chances of rain through
Thursday with the better dynamics in play.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A layer of stratus clouds with ceilings around 2500 feet AGL will
persist this morning then break up by 18Z with VFR conditions into
this evening. Low clouds will redevelop by 06Z and some patchy
IFR with ceilings around 700 feet is possible by 12Z.

Southwest winds will gust over 20 knots this afternoon and


Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Winds and waves will increase today and become hazardous to small
craft this afternoon through tonight. Southwest winds will gust to
30 knots at times during the afternoon and evening.


Issued at 1043 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Rainfalls from a half inch to over an inch occurred in the past
24 hours. Rivers and streams will stay below bankfull. River
advisories for Sycamore Creek at Holt and Maple River at Maple
Rapids have been cancelled as the rain has not translated into
large river rises. Flooding is not expected.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon EDT Saturday for



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