Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 160827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
327 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 327 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

After a seasonably cold day today, a significant warmup will
commence Friday and persist well into next week. Highs in the 50s
will be frequent during this time particularly over southern Lower
Michigan. Dry conditions will persist through the weekend followed
by a chance for rain showers during the early part of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

No significant changes to the forecast or concerns during the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

The main challenge in the long term deals with the timing of any
showers.  Overall the confidence is lower than usual given that the
models are having some issues with initializing the upper jet over
the Western Pacific.  This jet breaks down into many smaller jet
streaks with time.  Timing these smaller features will be a
challenge going forward.

The long term period starts out with a sharpening mid level ridge
tracking eastward through the Great Lakes region Saturday Night into
Monday. Clouds will be thickening up especially as the ridge goes by
on Monday.  A low level jet is shown to arrive Monday or Monday
Night. That feature will act to draw some Gulf Moisture into the
CWA. There could be showers with the arrival of the low level
jet...especially over western parts of the CWA Monday Night as a
mid level wave flattens the ridge over the region leading to
height falls.

I will keep the pattern warmer than normal and unsettled going
through the middle part of the week.  Mid level west to southwest
flow is shown.  The GFS does show another shortwave moving in for
Wednesday into Wednesday Night...while the High Res Euro brings a
ridge in.  Despite the ridge...the High Res Euro does bring in a
higher pwat airmass along with elevated instability by Thursday.
Will keep the mention of mostly showers going.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1106 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

The low level moisture is forecasted to decrease through Thursday.
This will likely act to keep conditions VFR. A few snow showers
may persist to start the period...but they should be gone by 09Z.
Isolated impacts to MVFR may occur until then.


Issued at 327 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Have cancelled the small craft advisory. Winds and waves will be
greatly reduced today as surface high pressure becomes established
over the area. Conditions are expected to remain below small
craft advisory criteria through the weekend.


Issued at 131 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

River levels continue above normal, but no flooding is expected
into next week. Little precipitation is expected, so river levels
should fall into next week.




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