Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 230726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
326 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A southwesterly flow of very warm and humid air will continue
into tonight. Well above normal temperatures are forecasted as a
result. A cold front will approach from the northwest Saturday
night and Sunday. This feature will then push through the region
Sunday night. With an unstable airmass in place...there will be
some scattered showers and thunderstorms around for the second
half of the weekend.  Dry weather returns for Monday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Despite the temperatures likely to climb into the 90s today...the
dewpoints stay mainly in the 60s. As a looks like we
will fall short of the need for a Heat Advisory. Southern counties
will need to be monitored given their proximity to the moisture.

Its hard to say how the convection will evolve tonight into Sunday
night. The models are not handling the current setup very
well...especially the convective complex over Nebraska. What I do
see in the models that lines up with the stronger convection is an
850 mb low level jet. The nose of this feature intersects the axis
of instability...resulting in a complex. Looking ahead 24 hrs from
now...this low level jet strengthens as it pushes northeast
through WI and into the UP. does appear another complex
will develop in that region tonight. The outflow from this feature
should push into part of my CWA later tonight and/or Sunday
morning. Will downplay the pops to start tonight...but keep them
relatively high for tonight.

The forecast area ends up on the divergent backside of the low
level jet Sunday and Sunday night. So somewhat of a limiting
factor is forecasted for widespread convection. Still the surface
front pushes into a warm and unstable airmass. Some synoptic lift
is forecasted as the mid to upper level wave pushes through...but
the trend is for weaker lift from this feature. Will keep a risk
for storms going. Stronger mid to upper level subsidence arrives
for later Sunday night into Monday. Thus the precipitation should
diminish quickly.

I did feature patchy dense fog in the morning forecast for today.
Observations show some around. The good radiational cooling will
continue for a few more the fog should expand somewhat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The long term portion of the forecast will start out dry and very
warm. It will then transition just a little cooler with some
intermittent chcs of rain showing up from mid-week and beyond.

The hot and steamy weather should be well south of the area by the
beginning of the long term as the cold front will be at least across
IN and OH. We will still maintain very warm temperatures with less
humidity. A short wave ridge aloft and associated sfc ridge will
keep the area dry through at least Tue night.

The chance of rain will begin on Wed, however we are not looking at
a real good chance until Wed night and especially on Thu. The
ridging will shift east of the area later on Tue, and some troughing
will start to work into the area. It will take a while for
sufficient moisture to advect into the area as the low level flow
will need to become srly to tap enough moisture for pcpn. Pcpn does
not look to be an all day event.

There will be chcs of showers/storms through the remainder of the
long term through Friday, but nothing looks too ominous at this
time. Heights will lower a little and the upper flow will become
more W/NW allowing for some cooler air to seep into the area. The
somewhat zonal flow will bring chances for showers/storms vias
embedded short waves riding the jet stream from the Pacific NW.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The only expected impacts to aviation interests will be the
fog/stratus that is already starting to form across the area. We
expect that conditions will drop down to IFR and below at all of
the terminals by 09z this morning. The fog will quickly dissipate
after sunrise this morning.

We expect mainly clear skies once the fog burns off this morning.
There could be a few cumulus clouds floating around, but they
would not impact pilots. Winds will remain light under 10 knots.
KMKG will see a lake breeze kick in. The VFR conditions will
likely remain through 06z Sun. Showers and storms will become
possible from West to East after this fcst period after 06z Sun.


Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

I did feature patchy dense fog for the marine forecast to start
the day today. Observation sites along the lakeshore show some
thick fog in places. HRRR suggests this fog may extend over parts
of the lake. Mid lake buoy has an RH of 100 percent right now.

The pressure gradient is rather weak...and will stay that way for
the first half of today. The gradient tightens up this afternoon
and evening as the next wave of low pressure approaches. A
stronger low level jet pivots up through WI and the UP tonight. A
complex of storms will likely impact parts of the nearshore waters
later tonight or Sunday morning...resulting in locally higher
winds and waves.


Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Thursday rainfall amounts ranged from a tenth to three-quarters of
an inch across the whole area... a welcome sight for many.
Sunday`s thunderstorms will likely produce a similar range of
amounts, although locally higher amounts could occur if the storm
mode turns out to be more of a multicell cluster rather than
progressive linear like Thursday.


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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