Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM.  AREAS NORTH OF A HOLLAND TO ALMA LINE WILL
STAY MAINLY DRY...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF A KALAMAZOO TO LANSING LINE.  SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
MAINLY BE DRY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN MILD...MAINLY
75 TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A STRONG SURFACE LOW...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH IN TONIGHT TO NE OHIO BY SATURDAY EVENING.  WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL AND STABLE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND RIDE THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF IT.

RAINS CHANCES RAMP UP ACROSS THE SE CWA LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES CLOSER.  WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR INGHAM...CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96.  THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SMALL JETLET LATE
TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
PCPN.  JACKSON COUNTY SHOULD BE THE WETTEST...SEEING AROUND A HALF
INCH OF RAIN. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR RAIN NORTH OF A BIV-AMN LINE AS
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN DUE
MUCH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

THE SE RAINS WIND DOWN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW AND UPPER JETLET
STARTS PULLING AWAY.  NOT MUCH BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS TO THE CWA...PROBABLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS YET
ANOTHER STACKED UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  DECENT INSTABILITY BUILDS
BY AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION...WE
MAY SEE A FEW LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JETLET
MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD CAUSE AREA-WIDE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AFTERNOON CU IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THIS CU FIELD MAY GO BKN AND PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FOR MKG...GRR...AND LAN.
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
AZO...BTL...AND JXN (PARTICULARLY EAST OF AZO HOWEVER). CIGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO GO IFR THOUGH IT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN NE IL SO
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED MAINLY FOR JXN LATER TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL CAUSE ROUGH LAKE
CONDITIONS MOST OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING OFF
LATE.  STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...BUT THESE ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A
MODERATE SWIMMING HAZARD FOR THE SUMMER WEEKEND DAY.  CAUTION SHOULD
BE USED.  WINDS LIGHTEN UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT... MAINLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MORE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK



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