Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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275
FXUS63 KGRR 040041
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. NO BIG
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. A CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

NO BIG STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME FLARE UPS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH WITH WEAK SFC
REFLECTION. LAKE TO 850MB DELTA T VALUES APPROACH 15C WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMS
BEFORE SFC RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN ON THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER QUICK HITTING TROUGH/CLIPPER FOLLOWS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THAT ONE. AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
TIER.

THE PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN...WITH SFC RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
FRIDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THE BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SNOW ARE FURTHER NORTH...AND THE
BULK OF IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE/LL SEE COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO AS DOES THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WHICH
GOES STRONGLY NEGATIVE.

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS NOR COLD AIR SO WE/LL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. BY FAR THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER WAVE
THAT MOVE ACROSS THE UP. THIS IS A MUCH DEEPER LOW AND WILL PRODUCE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND TOO. WE/LL SEE SOME SHSN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL REALLY START TO PLUNGE IN BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING. H8 TEMPS FALL FROM -7C TO -16C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF TROUGHING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TOO
SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ABUNDANT AND PERHAPS HEAVY.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FALL TO THE MID 20S NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN HAS GONE INTO A LAKE EFFECT REGIME THIS
EVENING. AS IS TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT REGIMES WE ARE SITUATED
UNDER A BLANKET OF MVFR CEILINGS ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP AND THE LIFT NOT REAL
STRONG. SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECTING VFR VISIBILITIES (FLURRIES). THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SCATTER OUT. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TO GO VFR HOWEVER.

WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO THE 7-10 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN THERE FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND
WAVES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN LOWLAND AREAS
NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LAST STORM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF ONE TO
AROUND ONE AND A HALF INCHES FELL. RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT... FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA... ROGUE
RIVER AT ROCKFORD... MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS AND GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO



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