Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 161645
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1045 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
Previous forecast is on track. Some of the short term models are
beginning to hint at fog overnight. This seems possible given
that the surface RH will exceed 90 percent in the early morning
hours. At the same time, the pressure gradient slackens as the warm
front currently to the west moves overhead. Any fog that does
develop will likely be light and patchy. The best chances will be
to our north where some snowmelt is still taking place.
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. The high clouds
currently overhead will remain in place before clearing out
Friday morning. Some short term models are hinting at some patchy
fog development in the early morning hours. This seems possible
given high moisture and light winds. However, confidence remains
low that anything below VFR vis will develop, so will be leaving
it out of this TAF issuance.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
Ridging aloft is shunted east of our area on Monday, in response to
upper troughing progressing from the Intermountain West/northern
Rockies into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. The upper wave
will escort a filling surface low as it lifts northeast from the
northern Great Plains into central SK/MB. A northeast to southwest
oriented cold front attendant to the surface low should sweep
through our area on Tuesday, bringing a chance for rain showers.
Model details are a bit fuzzier into Wednesday, but above normal
temperatures should continue. Monday looks to be the mildest day,
with the ECMWF suggesting lower 60s are possible in our
southwest. EKDMOS percentiles also favor 60s in our south. As with
Friday through Sunday, have raised high temperatures above the
consensus model guidance for Monday.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR conditions today and tonight. The 5-8 kft
cloud cover will decrease from west to east through the morning with
sct-bkn high clouds for the afternoon. Few-sct high clouds for
MARINE...Sely winds of 10-15 kts will develop this afternoon and
continue into tonight as high pressure moves east of Lake MI. Waves
of 1-3 feet expected. Otherwise relatively light winds and low wave
heights for Fri and the weekend.
Record highs for Milwaukee and Madison are as follows...
LOCATION FRI/17TH SAT/18TH SUN/19TH
Milwaukee 55 (1981) 57 (1933) 59 (1981)
Madison 61 (1981) 57 (1981) 60 (1981)
The average highs during this period are 33 in Milwaukee and 32 in
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...SPM