Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
673
FXUS63 KMKX 020138
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

A STRONG/WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION IS ROLLING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL...OVER THE PEORIA/BLOOMINGTON AREA...HEADED FOR
FORT WAYNE INDIANA OVERNIGHT. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE STATE LINE. THE RAIN IS
INTENSIFYING OVER ILLINOIS AND DRYING UP OVER WISCONSIN AS THE
FORCING BECOMES MORE FOCUSED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST. SOME
OF THE BETTER RAINFALL COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST WALWORTH AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LOTS OF DRIZZLE EXTENDS NORTH INTO
OZAUKEE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. LOOK FOR THE PRECIP TO WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MONDAY STARTS OUT SUNNY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR YOU FOLKS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS SCOOTS QUICKLY EAST AND WE GET INTO A DRIER
FLOW. THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS QUICKLY. CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. KMSN SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES EXPANDING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS...SO KEPT LIKELY GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP POPS UP THOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...THOUGH WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK MILD WITH
SOME SUN. THEN PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN A DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE OTHER
MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SO HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY THEN A THERMAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
SHOW SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT FORCING
IS WEAK SO KEPT FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE REGION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
NOW SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. STILL
SEEMS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN OR NEAR MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR NORTH. SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE
RAIN WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

MARINE...

WIND GUSTS ARE STILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. DID CHANGE THE
END OF THE SOUTHERN ZONE ADVISORY TO 00Z...AS WINDS SHOULD BE EASING
BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARQUARDT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.