Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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788
FXUS63 KMKX 020820
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND BROAD TROUGH
BRINGS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 700 MB AND 850 MB
COLD POOLS LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CREATING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WEAK CAPE
...50J/KG OR LESS...WITH MOISTURE TOO MEAGER FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

GFS BRINGS A RIBBON OF LIGHT QPF ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED ALONG A FOND DU
LAC...MADISON TO DARLINGTON LINE...BUT PCPN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO 2-
METER DEW POINTS THAT ARE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE MAV MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FEED AND MIXING UP TO NEAR
800MB DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S IF NOT LOWER...FEEL
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT MOST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON 925 MB TEMPERATURES THE MIXING ALSO BRINGS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WELL INLAND...WHICH ARE TEMPERED BY EXPECTED DIURNAL CU. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND BRINGING LIGHT
WEST WINDS. 925 MB TEMPS ON A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG INVERSION SO
CONSENSUS LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 EAST AND THE LOWER 40S WEST
LOOK GOOD.

.TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF ONTARIO. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 70 BEFORE THEY DROP
AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. PERHAPS ANOTHER SETUP FOR A
PNEUMONIA FRONT...16F TEMPERATURE DROPS IN ONE HOUR OR LESS...WITH
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

A BRIEF (HOUR TO TWO HOURS LONG) BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE FOR
THIS BAND WHICH INCLUDES LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET
STREAK ALL COMING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE NORTH. THIS STRONG FORCING LEADS TO HIGH VALUES OF
UPRIGHT OMEGA FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB. THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE IS SKINNY BUT SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE STRONG
FORCING TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING FOR THIS LINE. DEEP
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRESENT WITH THE LINE...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME 0-3KM SHEAR AT ABOUT 20-30KTS THAT COULD HELP WITH
GETTING SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN
850-700MB WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A CU FIELD FORMING AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND
0C...SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND WILL
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE COMES IN INTO THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON BOTH THE 02.00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THIS FRONT TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS LINGERS IT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR THE MAINLY VFR-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE TO ERODE/DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE.

LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU EXPECTED INLAND
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BASES AROUND 5K FT. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIET START TO THE FORECAST WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EASING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN BACKING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HALBACH



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