Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 080013
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
613 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...Warm advection will increase late tnt into Fri on wly
winds. Enough moisture may arrive within a low level thermal ridge
to produce stratus for Fri AM and possibly lingering into the
afternoon. Afterward, a fast moving amplifying shortwave trough
will move swd from Canada to the Upper MS River Valley on a nly
130 kt jet. As it amplifies it will shift ewd across the Ohio
River Valley and Great Lakes through Sat-Sat nt. PVA and warm
advection at the jet level should produce a period of light snow
Fri eve into the overnight. The frontogenesis is rather weak but
the mid level frontogenesis may become more organized over ern WI
as the upper wave amplifies. Overall, we are forecasting 1-3
inches with the higher amounts in ern WI.


&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions tnt with stratus developing
around and just after sunrise. Prevailing Cigs will range from
3.5-5.0 kft but there is the potential for MVFR Cigs during this
time as well. The stratus will continue into the afternoon with
the snow arriving Fri eve. Cigs will eventually fall to 1-2 kft
with the snow and Vsbys down to 1 mile.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 259 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017)

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Area of scattered to broken middle level clouds should continue
to slide southeast through parts of the area into early this
evening. Gusty westerly winds should linger during this time,
especially near Lake Michigan.

The winds will back to the southwest tonight, and linger into
Friday morning. Gusty winds may linger near the lake during this
time. Gusty southwest to west winds should return later in the
morning and afternoon near Lake Michigan, though should gradually
weaken elsewhere. Middle clouds overnight into Friday morning
should lower to around 3000 feet above ground level later in the
day from north to south.

Any snow is expected to hold off until early Friday evening,
moving quickly southeastward into the area. It should linger into
the overnight hours, before ending later Friday night from
northwest to southeast. A 1 to 3 inch fluffy/powdery snowfall is
forecast at this time, with the highest amounts in the far eastern
portions of the area. We should get a better idea on hourly rates
as the event draws closer.

Ceilings and visibilities should lower to IFR or below
categories, perhaps down to or below alternate minimums at times.
Light winds should veer northwest and become gusty later Friday
night into Saturday. This may lead to some blowing snow on
runways.

MARINE...

The pressure gradient will remain rather tight tonight into
Friday afternoon across the area. There are some gusts already
reaching at or above 22 knots at Sheboygan and Kenosha. Westerly
to southwesterly gusts should reach up to 25 knots at times during
this period, especially by later this evening.

Thus, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 03Z until 22Z
Friday. This may need to be started sooner, if the current gusts
remain high enough. High waves will remain over the open waters of
Lake Michigan.

Gusty winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels again at times
Saturday into Sunday, as a tight pressure gradient lingers in the
wake of low pressure moving to the east of the region. Gusts will
approach gale force Saturday morning. High waves may occur toward
the open waters of Lake Michigan.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM CST Friday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Friday Night through Thursday...Davis



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