Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 152351
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...Isolated showers over ern WI should end in the next hour
or so as temps gradually cool. Otherwise, clearing will occur
from west to east this evening. However, sct-bkn mid level clouds
will move ewd across srn WI after midnight due to warm advection
on the back side of a passing upper trough. Low temps of 36-41F
still looks good so only patchy frost expected. Swly winds and low
level warm advection will bring a return of mild temps on Mon.



&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Bkn040-060 stratocumulus will decrease from
west to east this evening. Sct-bkn100-120 will then move ewd
across srn WI after midnight. Mostly clear skies for Mon as a
drier and milder airmass moves into the region.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

Clouds will decrease late afternoon into the evening as low
pressure continues to pull away. A weak wave upstream is expected
to bring mid/high level clouds late evening into at least early
tonight, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
Stayed away from the coolest models for lows tonight as a result.
May see a little frost here and there, but overall coverage will
likely be limited, so held off on an advisory. Lows tonight are
expected to only be 1-3 degrees below normal for mid-October.

High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies Monday, with high
temps recovering to around normal.

Monday night through Friday night - Confidence - High
A quiet and unseasonably warm period expected. Warm westerly flow
with thermal ridge amplifying across the area on Wednesday ahead
of a weak wave. A brief collapse in this warmth Wednesday night
into Thursday as surface/850 trough moves through. No moisture and
energy north so will keep dry forecast intact. Renewed warmup for
Friday as southwest winds kick in and pull a renewed surge of
warmer 850/925 temps into the area.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Low level thermal ridging likely to linger into Saturday with
continuation of above normal temperatures. Influence of next
shortwave with sfc/850 cold front proggd to arrive as early as
Saturday afternoon with rain chances persisting potentially into
Sunday. Some timing differences on FROPA so will go with the
blended guidance at this point.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Ceilings have improved to MVFR from Madison
eastward, with lower clouds farther west. Clouds will decrease in
coverage late afternoon into the evening, with some mid/high
level clouds likely moving through overnight. VFR conditions are
expected Monday under mostly sunny skies.

Gusty winds will slowly ease this afternoon into the evening, with
lighter winds overnight and Monday.

MARINE...Downgraded the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory,
as winds have become lighter this afternoon. Gusty winds and higher
waves will continue into the evening hours, so put the advisory
out until 10 PM.

Could see winds return to advisory levels Tue and/or Wed.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday Night through Sunday...Collar



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