Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251042 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
542 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED ADVISORY CODING AND TO ADD AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOKS AS IF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE...CLEARING THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN 6 AM AND 7 AM...AND ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST BY 8 AM. WITH LACK OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS
UNDER THE LOW STRATUS BEHIND MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD...HAVE
CANCELLED ADVISORY FOR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...AND WILL BE LOOKING
TO DROPPING MORE BEFORE 10 AM EXPIRATION.

LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AFTER PCPN ENDS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING IT WILL BE HARD TO CLEAR UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AFFECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER GIVEN
LACK OF COLD ADVECTION WITH WESTERLY WINDS OVER SRN WI AS STRONG
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND FORECAST
925 MB TEMPS WENT WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WINDS REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM
SURFACE LOW AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA. SOME COOLING OF 925
AND 850 MB TEMPS...BUT COOLEST AIR IS BACK TO THE NORTH SO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...ON NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
SATURATION ON THE NAM. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME...AND DOES NOT HAVE THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES TO 8000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL LIKE THE NAM. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER. LOW LEVEL WINDS
DO TURN NORTH NORTHEAST ON SOME OF THE MODELS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED...WITH NONE ABOVE THE INVERSION. SO...THIS MAY JUST
GENERATE SOME CLOUDS AT BEST. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER DURING
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SLIDE THE HIGH EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...WITH QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
THESE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER WITH
BRINGING THE QPF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IMPROVES.

KEPT FORECAST DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO
TIME SMALL AREAS OF QPF THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY SEE
MODERATION DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A MILDER AIRMASS TRIES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MIXY PRECIP AT KMSN HAS JUST ABOUT
ENDED...AND MAINLY RAIN AT EASTERN TAF SITES IS ENDING RAPIDLY
AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTHEAST LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD BE CLEAR OF KUES AND KENW
BY ISSUANCE TIME AND KMKE SHORTLY AFTER.

HOWEVER IFR STRATUS DECK AND FOG WITH VSBYS UNDER 3 MILES EXTENDS
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH
INCREASING WEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW DECK IS SHALLOW. WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH 25
KNOTS. WILL BRING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE BY EARLY EVENING WITH VFR VSBYS
AND CIGS.

.MARINE...CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AS CURRENT
LULL IN WINDS WILL END WITH WINDS TURNING WEST AND INCREASING BACK
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS BY MID-
MORNING. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL LOWER WAVES THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS EASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-
     047-051-052-057-058-063.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD


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