000
FXUS63 KMKX 120845
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY OR DYNAMIC PUNCH AS THERE WAS
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE THE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD POOL
OVER US...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE
CU POP BY MID MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER
THAN NAM OR GFS...WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE DEVELOPING SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SHEARED VORT DROPPING THROUGH REGION
THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A BIT OF EXTRA LIFT. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT 925 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -1C TO -4C...BUT
MODELS AGREE THAT THEY WILL RECOVER TO +3 TO +5C BY 00Z. THOUGH
WARMEST 925 MB TEMPS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY...ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE WITH
MID 50S IN THE WEST...TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR EAST.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GIVEN THE EXPECTED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT ...AND WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING THE THE NAM/GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE...
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR NW COUNTIES WHERE LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S...AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH LOW 30S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. EVEN
MILWAUKEE AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FROST IN THEIR
FAR WEST. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FREEZE WARNING COUNTIES...BUT WARNING WOULD HAVE TO
BE EXPANDED IF THE COLDER NAM IS CORRECT.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD MONDAY
MORNING...SO THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SLIDING INTO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MAX OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY THEN TUESDAY AS A WARMER AND CAPPED AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
LIFT WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS MUCH LESS CERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST THOUGH. MODELS VARY A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THUS
IMPACTING WIND DIRECTION. IF THE WINDS STAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGESTS...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE QUICKER NAM AND CANADIAN WOULD
HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST. OPTED TO GO DOWN THE MIDDLE FOR TEMPS
TOWARD THE LAKE FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

HAVE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING IN THE AREA.
WILL LIKELY SEE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BIGGEST
ISSUE IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND THEN TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES.
ALSO...DIFFERING PLACEMENTS OF THE STALLED FRONT ARE PRODUCING
DECENT SPREADS IN TEMPS AMONG MODELS. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
SETUP...SO STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SHOULD SEE VFR CU DEVELOP/4-5K FT/ BY MID-MORNING AND BECOME BROKEN.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO START AFTER MORNING MIX OUT...THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY EASE THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. VFR FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT FORECAST WIND GUSTS STILL INDICATE 3 PM CDT END TIME FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOLDS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW CRITERIA
GUSTS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS
WILL EASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...TURNING SOUTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ051-052-
     057>060-062>072.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV