Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150312
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
912 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions likely through the night. Broken stratocumulus with
a departing cold front. Isolated to scattered snow showers and
flurries are expected with this front this evening. This will be
light and with warm ground temps, will not be much of a concern.

There should then be a period of scattered clouds, and maybe even
some clearing, behind the front overnight. Expect sct-bkn cloud
cover with areas of MVFR Cigs to re-develop by mid-Wed morning.
Northwest winds will become gusty along the cold front and
persist through most of the day Wednesday, especially toward
southeast Wisconsin.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 3 PM Wed, for brisk
northwest winds in the wake of a cold front. Waves will be 3 to 5
feet for tonight and Wed morning.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A cold front will be exiting far southeast Wisconsin early this
evening. This is on the leading edge of a robust 500 mb shortwave
trough pushing south across the state. Snow showers with this
shortwave are ongoing in northeast and central Wisconsin late this
afternoon, along with gusty northwest winds. These showers have
been slow to drift south, but could still reach parts of southern
Wisconsin early this evening, just for a few hours. Little or no
impact is expected due to their light nature and warm ground.

Skies should gradually clear in the wake of the front overnight.
Then lower clouds will re-develop by mid-Wed morning, due to
steep low level lapse rates and lingering moisture with cyclonic
flow aloft. Temps will drop into the lower 20s tonight, and only
recover into the upper 20s/lower 30s Wed. NW winds will remain
elevated tomorrow, especially near the lakeshore area.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in fair agreement with a northwest to southeast
oriented warm front sliding southeastward from southern Minnesota
into central Illinois Wednesday night into Thursday, lingering
there into Friday. There are a few 500 mb vorticity maxima and low
to mid level frontogenesis response features that pass southeast
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

However, models struggle to saturate through a deep layer during
this time. The NAM has the most saturation, with most other models
drier. Kept Wednesday night into Thursday dry in forecast, with
some clouds moving through.

Things should remain dry into Friday, with easterly flow in the
low levels. Temperatures near normal Wednesday night/Thursday
should rise well above normal on Friday, with warm air advection
developing over the region. Onshore winds will keep lakeshore
areas cooler.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

This period continues to look quite warm, with warm air advection
lingering into Saturday, and another shot for Monday. There are
timing differences with the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models with the
cold frontal passage for later Monday into Monday night, with the
Canadian an outlier solution versus the GFS/ECMWF. There should be
enough moisture with this system to bring the next decent chances
for precipitation. It looks warm enough to be all rain for Monday
into Tuesday.

Continued to go warmer than the blended model guidance for high
temperatures for Saturday into Monday. Should see cooler values
near Lake Michigan with onshore winds Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions likely through the night. Broken stratocumulus or
cumulus will develop by evening, as a cold front drops through
southern WI. Isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries are
expected with this front through early evening. This will be very
light stuff and with warm ground temps, will not be an operational
concern.

There should be a period of scattered clouds, and maybe even some
clearing, well behind the front overnight. Expect sct-bkn cloud
cover with areas of MVFR Cigs to re-develop by mid-Wed morning.
NW winds will become gusty along the cold front and persist
through most of the day Wednesday, especially toward southeast WI.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 3 PM Wed, for brisk
northwest winds in the wake of a cold front. Waves will build to 3
to 5 feet for tonight and Wed AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hentz
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...Davis



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