Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150518
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1118 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...

No changes to the forecast late this evening. A few areas of
patchy flurries continue across the forecast area. Temperatures
should more or less hold steady in the upper teens to around 20
for the rest of the night.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

MVFR ceilings will affect the terminals overnight tonight as areas
of stratus move through. A few very light flurries are possible,
though no accumulation is expected.

Cigs should lift to VFR tomorrow, with west winds becoming gusty
from mid morning through the afternoon hours.

&&

MARINE...

West winds will gust to near small craft levels tomorrow mid
morning into tomorrow afternoon, and it`s possible that a Small
Craft Advisory may eventually be needed for the nearshore waters.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday - Confidence...Medium
A mid level shortwave along with a surface/850 millibar trough
will work through. Seeing some snow showers/flurries upstream on
radar mosaic so expect this to translate through southern WI
tonight. Model QPF is light but does support somewhat higher pops
in the northern CWA. Influence of this feature could linger into
the far eastern CWA in the morning. Influence of the trough
departs by midday or so though will keep flurries into the
afternoon as well with the start of some weak isentropic lift
returning.

Friday night and Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Pronounced WAA setting up which sets up a frontogenetically
induced band of forcing with QPF oriented along a NW/SE band across
mainly the northeast half of the CWA. Have focused the highest
POPS there for Friday night into Saturday morning. The forcing
then lifts off to the north. Areas around FDL and SBM could push
an inch with amounts trailing off to the southwest. So overall
this looks to be an inch or less type event. Milder 850 temps
surge into the area for Saturday afternoon. Could see highs
pushing the 40 degree mark in some areas though 3 hourly MOS
numbers look better at the moment.

Sunday - Confidence...Low to Medium
The GEM and ECMWF are still more robust with the low riding
northeast and associated QPF. Meanwhile the GFS is continuing the
dry look. Thicknesses support rain while 850 temps suggest snow or
a mix. So if we see anything out of this the airmass doesn`t look
real conducive to accumulating snow.

Monday through Wednesday - Confidence...Medium to High
Overall a quiet period here with main story being the passage of a
cold front Monday night. Could be on the blustery side come
Tuesday.

Wednesday night and Thursday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Models continue to show a potent storm system affecting the region
this period with the usual fine-tuning of the details a long ways
off from being finalized. However the models have been sending
this signal for a while now that a system would be targeting the
area in the 21st-22nd timeframe and with the trend continuing to
persist there is increasing confidence in this coming to fruition.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Friday Night through Thursday...99


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