Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 290819
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...TAKING THE UPPER SPEED MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.  THEN UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING SPEED MAX OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET LATE TONIGHT.  WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
BEGINS.

700 MB RH DECREASES TODAY BUT DOESN`T DROP TO BELOW 60 PERCENT UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. 925/850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY AND IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE
ANTICIPATED CLEARING IS IN DOUBT...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL ALSO TEMPER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH QUESTIONABLE CLEARING AND A CONTINUED LIGHT
EAST FLOW OFF THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SATURDAY. A BAND OF RAIN
DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
IA AND ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. THAT RAIN WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET
INTO SOUTHERN WI THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST... PER THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS SLOW-DOWN IS TYPICAL WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS. A STEADY
FEED OF DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP RAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
HALF OF WI AND THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN EVEN GETTING INTO
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS.

RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL SATURDAY... BUT THE
DELAYED START TO THE RAIN ALLOWED ME TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A NOTCH...
WITH MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH STATIONED
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND SUN NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND FROM THE
LAKE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS NOW SHOW THIS FEATURE
FARTHER WEST SO CONSENSUS KEEPS SOUTHERN WI DRY.

TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S INLAND. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK FEED OF WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT OR WED MORNING... DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
THIS ONE MAY BRING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WI. THE GFS
IS COLDER THAN THE ECWMF WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHERN WI
ON WED. THE COOLER AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY... ALONG
WITH QUIET WEATHER.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SOUTHERN WI FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS ARE VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND... SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PRECIP
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN.  700 MB RH DECREASES TODAY BUT DOESN`T
DROP TO BELOW 60 PERCENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. 925/850 MB MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH DURING MUCH OF THE DAY AND IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE ANTICIPATED CLEARING IS IN
DOUBT...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS MAY YET DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS SLOWLY RISING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

PATCHY FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
EAST FLOW.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL SATURDAY
WHEN WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC


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