Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 142040
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. COOL NIGHT SHAPING
UP WITH UNSEASNABLY DRY DEW POINTS...SO EXPECT MANY TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S. BY LATER FRIDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE OH VLY.
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE LINGERS...SO EXPECTING DRY AIRMASS
TO PREVAIL WITH BETTER FORCING DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
PLAINS TROUGH FURTHER WEST OF CWA...SO WENT WITH QUIET POPS THROUGH
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER 925 TEMPS
INTO SRN WI WITH VALUES OF 18-20C...SO EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH
READINGS REACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE WRN CWA.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS INDICATING BETTER CHANCE FOR MCS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SW OF
STATE WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AND OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING PLAINS SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER SOME LIFT WORKS
INTO THE SW CWA OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA REACHES NEAR 600 J/KG FOR A PARCEL LIFTED
FROM AROUND 780 MB. CAPE STRUGGLING TO REACH 200 J/KG...OFFSET BY
CIN BETWEEN 75 AND 100 J/KG ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SRN WI WILL BE BETWEEN COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
STATE AND SHORT WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST TO
THE SOUTH. STILL LEAVING POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WITH MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR TO KEEP SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY DRY AND ONLY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PCPN DROPPING INTO CWA
WITH COLD FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS
SOLUTION FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND FORCING ALONG STATIONARY FRONT OVER
EITHER SRN WI/NRN IL...DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE...KEEPING LOW
CONSENSUS POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. COULD BE DRY
...AND A BIT WARMER INLAND IF THE MORE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT VERIFIES.
HIGH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS COOLER
REGARDLESS OF PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH
WITH UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TAKING NW EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD WITH DEPARTING
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF ALONE IN BRINGING ANY PCPN INTO FAR WESTERN WI
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE. THIS SLOW-MOVING WAVE
KEEPS PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONSENSUS LOW POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST
LOW PASSES THROUGH REGION AND HOW FAR SOUTH COLD FRONT MOVES...WITH
THURSDAY POPS WITH SAID FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF NEXT LOW.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING FRIDAY. JUST AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS EXPECTED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL EXTENDING INTO AREA
ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO HOLD OFF TO EXTREME WESTERN
WI THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM


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