Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 231930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON...HANGING
ON IN THE NORTH THE LONGEST. SHOULD THEN TURN MOSTLY CLEAR BY
MID/LATE EVENING.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT AS REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS
FROM TANKING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 10-
12C BY MORNING.

TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS CRACKING 70 TOWARD ILLINOIS.
THROW IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND IT WILL DEFINITELY
FEEL LIKE FALL IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME. WE/LL STILL HAVE SOME GRADIENT FLOW AND CLOUDS
ON TUESDAY...BUT THOSE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. A COOL PERIOD FOR SURE WITH SLOW RECOVERY
EACH DAY.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THERE IS BIG DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AS THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS WEAKENS THE APPROACHING TROUGH
EVEN MORE AND KEEPS IT SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS WOULD KEEP
IT DRY AROUND HERE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. NO MAGIC BALL HERE GIVEN HOW FAR AWAY IT IS...SO WILL TAKE A
BLENDED COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY
STABLE...SO ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CLOUDY DECK ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT BEHIND DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON...HANGING ON IN THE
NORTH THE LONGEST. SHOULD THEN TURN MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...SEEMS BEST COMBINATION OF LOWER SURFACE WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
MENTIONED SHEAR IN MSN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY EVENING...EASING A BIT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY.

TIMING OF THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...WITH IT SET
TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.