Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 152101
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE FORECAST SNOWFALL STILL SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. THE SNOW HAS BEGUN IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND WILL REACH THE LAKE BY 5 OR 6 PM. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF SNOW WILL FALL PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NOT A TON OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE IS ABOUT 250 TO 300 MB DEEP. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD
TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS...ABOUT 17 OR 18
TO 1. THUS STILL THINKING ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DESPITE THE
LOWER OVERALL MOISTURE.

LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY...AS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WHILE A THIRD WAVE
APPROACHES. WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT
TIMES SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE VERY COLD PATTERN CONTINUES AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE EVENING LOOKS DRY...BUT THE FRONT...DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE ONLY
FLURRIES WITH AMOUNTS WELL UNDER 1/2 INCH. A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON QUITE BRISK WITH WIND
CHILLS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY...BUT
STILL QUITE COLD.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST QUICKLY...ANOTHER SURFACE TROF/COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STRONG
LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY REACHED
IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS INTO WED MORNING. THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF. ANY SNOW ACCUMS
AGAIN LIMITED TO 1/2 INCH OR LESS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS MAINTAINING A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. SO TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THE SNOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND WILL REACH THE
LAKE BY 5 OR 6 PM. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF SNOW WILL FALL PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL LOOKS
ABOUT RIGHT. IT WILL BE A DRY SNOW...WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF
AROUND 17 OR 18 TO 1.

UPSTREAM OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH THE
SNOWFALL...WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 1 TO 2 MILES.

LOOKS LIKE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY...AS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WHILE A THIRD WAVE
APPROACHES. WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS



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