Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 160322
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LEFT OVER VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. STILL A STRAY SHOWER BUT THAT
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY. CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY
THOUGH CORE OF COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SHIFTS A BIT EAST...BUT
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STILL PLENTY OF CUMULUS COVERAGE
WELL WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT THIS TYPE OF SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH SOME CLEARING IFR/LIFT FOG MAY FORM MAINLY IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

UPPER LOW AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY
FROM WI. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS GOING ON IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. 925 TEMPS MODERATE TO
14-16C SO WOULD EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEPARTING LOW. SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND EXPANDS
TO COVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING. DEVELOPING
SWLY FLOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A SLOW WARM. UPPER 40S
LOWS ARE FOLLOWED BY MID 70S HIGHS INLAND...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTH
WIND HOLDING LAKESIDE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S THURSDAY. UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S LOWS GIVE WAY TO MID-UPPER 70S FRIDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS
COOLING THE LAKESHORE.

MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. GFS AND SREF ONLY MODELS WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL OMEGA WITH STEEP LOW=LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WHAT
LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS CONFINED TO BELOW 10K FT. NAM SOUNDINGS
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH 200-300J/KG OF CAPE BUT CAPPED AROUND
7500 FT. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION. WILL KEEP THE END OF THE WEEK DRY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A MORE BENIGN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN WI FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO...AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. SHORT WAVE THAT DUG INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST IN PREVIOUS RUNS IS NOW FORECAST TO PUSH WELL INTO
ONTARIO. GFS ALONE IN POPPING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY....WITH PCPN WITH WAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PASSING TO THE SE OF THE STATE SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY DRY. BLENDED SOLUTION FOR NEXT WAVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS PCPN CHANCES BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AND SCT SHRA ASSOCIATED
WITH CHILLY 500 MILLIBAR LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
12Z 500 TEMP AT GRB WAS -21C. GOOD DEAL OF THESE CIGS ARE OF THE
MVFR VARIETY. EXPECT THIS NEARLY OVC DECK TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
THE EVENING HOURS. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL DROPOFF THEN. CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH CORE OF COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SHIFT A
BIT EAST...BUT AS VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS STILL PLENTY OF CU COVERAGE
WELL WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT THIS TYPE OF COVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM



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