000
FXUS63 KMKX 031714 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1114 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA...AND
INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES. MODERATE SNOW WITH 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES SHIFTING INTO
OAK CREEK AND SOUTH MILWAUKEE...WITH MORE OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THESE WERE SHIFTING WEST AROUND 10 MPH.

FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES...ALONG WITH PROLONGED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...HAVE HELPED THIS BAND PERSIST. NONE OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS BAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS
AND HRRR DID SHOW SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK OVER THE WATER
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 19Z OR SO.

WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND THAT TIME...THEN TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTERWARDS. A QUICK 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF
THE MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE IN
THIS AREA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES
AT OR BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENOSHA
UNTIL 19Z...AND PERHAPS MILWAUKEE AS WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF
SNOW BAND WILL MAKE IT INTO MILWAUKEE. IF IT DOES...A QUICK 1/2
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. KENOSHA SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
1/2 INCH AS WELL.

CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WAUKESHA AND MADISON WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING WEST BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MADISON AROUND
06Z TUESDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z TUESDAY.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER FOR A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE
ENDING. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH
PER HOUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

VISITILITIES WILL BE AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE WATERS REMAINS ICE COVERED...AS WELL AS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OPEN WATERS. THUS...ANY WAVE ACTION WILL BE
LIMITED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WINDS HAVE NOT QUITE DECOUPLED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CONTINUED FALLING TEMPERATURES THE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL BRING WIND CHILLS TO 15 TO 25 BELOW.
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD END ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
9 AM CST.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE 850
MB LEVELS REMAIN RATHER COLD.  WEAK TO MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION...WITH THE STRONGER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  700 MB LAYERS SATURATE...BUT 925 AND 850 MB REMAIN RATHER
DRY.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER TO 5 TO 10 MB ON THE 285
AND 290 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LAYERS WITH MODERATE LIFT.  WILL THEREFORE
MENTION A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE DELLS...FOND DU LAC...AND SHEBOYGAN.  AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.

SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 10 TO 15
DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE.  WITH THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHERN WI WILL LIKELY
BRING A QUICK-HITTING INCH OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN WI MAINLY TUESDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TUE
NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO INCREASED POPS
A LITTLE. THE 00Z NAM WAS A CLEAR OUTLIER WITH QPF FOR THE TUE-WED
SYSTEMS...BUT THE 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS MODELS. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON
TO HIGHER 1000-850MB RH THROUGH THE DAY WED. WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM
SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ANY LOW CLOUDS
COULD STILL PRODUCE FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN WI.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY PERIOD. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE WED NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY THU WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TIMING OF PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN WI...SO TOOK CONSENSUS APPROACH. TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE
GROUND WILL APPROACH OR EVEN RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING FRI AFTERNOON.
THUS KEPT A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE MENTION FOR THAT PERIOD.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH SNOW SET
UP ACROSS NORTHERN IL. A CHANGE IN THE MODELS COULD BRING THE
CHANCE OF SNOW BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI.

IF SOUTHERN WI WEATHER IS DRY NEXT WEEKEND IT MEANS WE ARE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND OUR MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  SOME HIGH/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN ICE COVERED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC