000
FXUS63 KMKX 170308
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1008 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...THERE ARE SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING INTO ERN IA. OTHERWISE THE LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH DRY AIR INHIBITING WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVER SRN WI. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW FROM IA
THROUGH CENTRAL WI ALSO FAVORS THE WIDESPREAD PCPN STAYING NORTH.
STILL EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NRN CWA AS
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT ALL PCPN TYPE RAIN WITH TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE MILDER THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS ON THU
WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THICKER
HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM INTO FAR SE WI.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT
NEWD FROM IA INTO CENTRAL WI FOR THU AM...A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI. MID LEVEL CIGS MAY FALL TO 5-6 KFT WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM 13-16Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI INCLUDING KMSN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THEN PREVAIL AFTERWARD
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SE
WI...BUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
17Z AT KMSN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GRADUALLY VEERING TO WESTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF AN ISSUE THOUGH...WITH MODELS SHOWING
A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE NORTH. KEPT IT MAINLY DRY NEAR
THE ILLINOIS BORDER. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A BIT
FOR TONIGHT.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET UP INTO THE LOW 50S MOST PLACES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE IN THE NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO MICHIGAN WITH 70 METER HEIGHT RISES OVER
WISCONSIN. BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION ALONG STALLED FRONT
FROM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LOWER MICHIGAN PROBABLY STAYS SOUTH
AND EAST OF AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FAR
SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

RATHER COMPLEX FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH TWO FLOW REGIMES. ONE BAND
OF WESTERLIES IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE OTHER ALONG THE
GULF COAST. SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD WISCONSIN WITH CONTINUE
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION SHIELD LOOKS TO GO
NORTH OF AREA AND AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE DAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES LATE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SPREAD INTO AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AS SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS TEND TO PHASE WITH 40 METER HEIGHT
FALLS AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR EASTERN SUNDAY ACTIVITIES. GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES TO CAUSE MORE THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY OF HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GFS WOULD BE WETTER AND
COOLER WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...ECMWF STALLS FRONT TO THE NORTH AND PUMPS WARMER AIR
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. UPPER 60S IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT MUCH
COOLER WITH GFS SOLUTION. LEANING MORE TOWARD WARMER ECMWF
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

30 METER HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN STREAM TO CONTINUE RAIN
CHANCES. GFS IS FASTER AND DRIER...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO
PRECIPITATION WITH SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING.

TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

AS DEEP TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. LOOKS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG TROUGH ENTERS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL AT NIGHT.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH DEEP LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
FLAKES MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.

MARINE...

BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...EASING AND VEERING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. HIGHER WAVES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CRAVEN