Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141742 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1142 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Wly winds and mild morning temps will lead to another day of high
temps in the lower to middle 40s. A cold front will drop into
southern WI late this afternoon. This is on the leading edge of a
robust 500mb shortwave trough. Snow showers with this shortwave are
ongoing in the Duluth area late this morning, along with gusty
northwest winds. Timing of these snow/rain showers seems a little
slower than the previous forecast. Not expecting accumulation due to
the relatively warm ground and light amounts.

Skies should gradually clear in the wake of the front overnight.
Then lower clouds will re-develop by mid Wed morning due to steep
low level lapse rates and lingering moisture with cyclonic flow
aloft. Temps will drop into the lower 20s tonight, and only recover
into the upper 20s/lower 30s Wed. NW winds will remain elevated
tomorrow, especially near the lakeshore area.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions likely through the night. Broken stratocumulus or
cumulus will develop during the late afternoon as a cold front drops
through southern WI. Isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries
are expected with this front through early evening. Areas of MVFR
Cigs and vsbys are possible, but ceilings are looking a little
higher than previously forecast.

There should be a period of scattered clouds and maybe even some
clearing well behind the front overnight. Expect Sct-bkn cloud cover
with areas of MVFR Cigs to re-develop by mid Wed morning. NW winds
will become gusty along the cold front late this afternoon and
persist through most of the day Wednesday, especially toward
southeast WI.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 3 PM Wed for brisk west
winds today and gusty northwest winds tonight into Wed in the wake
of a cold front. Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet for tonight and Wed
AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence High.

Wly winds and mild morning temps will lead to another day of high
temps in the lower to middle 40s. An upper trough and cold front
will arrive for the late afternoon and evening with mostly cloudy
skies and small chances of snow showers forecast. Some rain may
initially occur given the mild temps. Forecast soundings do show
unstable conditions in the low levels. Brisk nwly winds and cold
advection will drop temps into the lower 20s by Wed AM.

WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium
WI will be situated on the far western periphery of the eastern US
trough. Elongated cyclonic shear zone shifts east. Low level thermal
trough will be in place with 925 temps of -6c to -9c. LLVL RH progs
shows quite a bit of low level moisture in the morning with some
decrease noted form west to east during the afternoon. Temps
closer to normal will feel chilly esp with a steady nw wind.

THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
Pronounced northwest mid level flow persists though with more of an
anticyclonic feel to it. A low level waa regime gets underway as
with the low level thermal trough getting shunted off to our east.
Weak surface ridging lingers for much of the day.

FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium
More impressive WAA takes hold with 850 temps reaching 9-12c. the
GFS lags the ECMWF with degree of warming at 925 but still shows a
decent southwest push of milder temps into at least the southwest
half of the CWA while the ECMWF shows temps a few degrees warmer.
Mid level ridging amplifies across the upper Midwest. Column looks
pretty dry.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium
Overall the mid level ridging prevails though a few weak ripples
ride across in the flow. The models are showing a cool front moving
through Saturday with the GFS being the most aggressive with a
cooler 925 thermal pattern though this wouldn`t really arrive
until later Saturday. The GFS 2 meter temps that our currently
below the Superblend guidance. The ECWMF on the other hand retains
the warm look despite the frontal passage. Have trended a little
warmer than Superblend and will have to watch for cooler readings
in the east with winds likely becoming onshore Saturday night into
Sunday with surface high moving through and shifting east on
Sunday.

MONDAY - COnfidence...Medium
The mid level ridge axis gets nudged downstream as evolving trough
heads into the Plains. The LLJ axis on both the ECMWF and GFS
remains to our west through 00z. So it looks like the better rain
chances hold off until Monday night. There will be a reinforcing
push of milder air into the area ahead of the low. In fact both the
GFS and ECMWF have 925 temps in the 10-13c range.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR conditions to continue this morning.
Broken stratocumulus or cumulus will then develop during the
afternoon as a cold front approaches. Isolated to scattered snow
showers and flurries are expected by middle to late afternoon and
continuing into the evening. Areas of MVFR Cigs and vsbys will
likely occur. Sct-bkn cloud cover is then expected late at night
with areas of MVFR Cigs still expected.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 AM today until
3 PM Wed. Brisk west winds will develop later this morning and then
shift nwly by evening with the passage of cold front. The brisk nwly
winds will then continue into Wed. Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet
for tonight and Wed AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Collar
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Gehring


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