Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 301511 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BROKEN BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONVERGENCE
WITH WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THERE...ENDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 70S INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF OVERCAST IFR CATEGORY LOW STRATUS WILL BECOME BROKEN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR CATEGORY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
VEER NORTHEAST BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTH WINDS REMAINING AT MADISON. MAY SEE 20 KNOT
GUSTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT AT THE EASTERN SITES.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE AT THE EASTERN
SITES. MADISON WILL REMAIN NORTH.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND
SHIFT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUSTS TO MAKE SURE THEY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PASS TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH ALONG WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SFC CONVERGENCE FROM WINDS TURNING
ONSHORE WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR ERN WI. OTHERWISE
EXPECT BROKEN CLOUD COVER BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AVA...AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE. RELATIVELY COOL BUT PLEASANT TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER
THE LAKE COUNTIES WITH THE ONSET OF NELY WINDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE SWD THROUGH THE STATE TNT WITH COOL LOW TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH 850 THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. SO COOL CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. 925
TEMPS IN LOW/MID TEENS WITH THE USUAL EAST/WEST GRADIENT IN
SURFACE TEMPS GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE 12Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN PRECIP WITH SHORTWAVE WAFFLING ESE ACRS
IA/NRN IL AND SRN WI. THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED DRIER LIKE THE OTHER
MODELS SO WILL GO WITH QUIET 14 POPS. OVERALL SURFACE/850 FLOW
CONTINUES TO HAVE ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH 925 TEMPERATURES RISING A
BIT DEEPER INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. SURFACE/850 HIGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE
EAST WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW NOTED. AGAIN...DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOWING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH APPCH
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF A BIT
FROM THE 12Z RUN ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY AND HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER PER THE GFS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO BRING BEST FORCING
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AREAS OF GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE OVER A WIDE RANGE
BUT ON AVERAGE BE FROM 3- 5SM BR. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY CONTRIBUTE TO BKN020-030 BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IMPROVING THE CLOUD COVER TO SCT CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FCST OVER FAR ERN WI
INCLUDING THE SE WI TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TNT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



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