489
FXUS63 KMKX 061934
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
234 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms linger through this afternoon across south-
  central and southeast Wisconsin, with conditions drying out
  tonight.

- High swimming risk expected through tonight at Milwaukee,
  Racine, and Kenosha County beaches. Moderate swimming risk
  expected during the same time period at Sheboygan and Ozaukee
  County beaches.

- Gusty winds and elevated wave heights will lead to Small Craft
  Advisory conditions in nearshore zones through tonight.

- Drier & more comfortable air settles into southern Wisconsin tonight
  through Monday.

- Humidity & shower/storm chances return Tuesday through late
  week. Tuesday through early Wednesday & Friday through
  Saturday are currently favored for the best shower & storm
  chances.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 234 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Tonight and Monday night:

An upper level trough and exiting cold front continues to allow
for showers and storms to develop. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms are moving southeast through south central and
eastern Wisconsin. Dewpoints and PWATs remain elevated along and
south of the front, so any shower will produce some efficient
rainfall. Showers are also very slow moving. The mid to upper
level wave will be the main forcing mechanism over southern
Wisconsin through this afternoon and early evening.

Conditions will dry out heading into tonight as the low pressure
and cold front pull away to the east. High pressure and a weak
ridge will move in behind this exiting system. Under the
clearing skies and light winds tonight, fog will be possible
across southern Wisconsin. The multiple days of rain have kept
the ground saturated. Fog is expected to be patchy. Dewpoints
will gradually diminish throughout the day Monday. Guidance
keeps hinting a nebulous area of lift in the mid levels moving
through Monday afternoon. This lift combined with diurnal mixing
and heating should create just enough lift for the environment
to try to produce some light rain. This area of lift should
largely stay north and west of the forecast area, but it will
try to squeeze out the last of the moisture. A few CAMs members
show these isolated showers popping up and falling apart very
quickly. Capped POPs at 15% for the far western portion of our
forecast area, to highlight the very small risk of a few showers
moving in. Otherwise dry weather and cooler conditions are
expected through Monday night.


Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 234 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

An upper level trough is expected to move through the northern Great
Lakes Region Tuesday. This trough will be dropping down from
Saskatchewan Canada and guidance still have differences in the exact
placement of this trough, but there has been consistency in PVA
moving through the state. Ahead of the incoming upper level trough,
winds will shift to southwesterly. WAA and southerly winds will
bring dewpoints back up and increase temperatures slightly. Forecast
soundings show the column moistening throughout the morning and into
the afternoon. So despite some sfc high pressure across Wisconsin
there should be enough moisture and upper level lift to generate
rain chance for southern Wisconsin. There will be a chance for some
thunderstorms and a bit more organized convection as diurnal
heating leads to more instability in the afternoon and shear
should be good enough to support storms. PWATs are also going to
be high again during this time with values of 1.5 to near 2
inches. Comparing this to sounding climatology as PWATs get
closer to 2 inches that will be near the Daily Maximum for both
GRB and DVN. While there will be broad lift, moisture and a
little bit of instability and shear, the overall set up is
fairly week so not anticipating much if any severe weather.

For mid to late week there will be more low chances for rain as
multiple shortwaves move through the larger flow and ride the
ridge. Guidance is still showing uncertainty with these smaller
shortwaves for Wednesday and Thursday which is bringing in low
POPs around 10 to 15% at times. Friday into Saturday will be the
next better chance for rain and storms to return. A stronger
trough will be advecting down from the Pacific NW and Canada
toward the Great Lakes Region. Timing and track are still in
question, but this system will likely bring our next decent
chance for rain and storms.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 234 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR to IFR conditions will persist across southern Wisconsin into
the afternoon hours. The lower cloud deck around 500 to 2000
feet will move southeast with time and slowly exit the state.
By this late this afternoon south central Wisconsin will have
VFR ceilings returning and by tonight southeastern Wisconsin
should have VFR conditions. Winds have shifted to the north to
northeast across all of southern Wisconsin behind the front.
Breezy conditions will continue across the lakeshore areas and
terminals into tonight with gusts of 20 to 26 kts possible.
Until the upper level lift has cleared the state there will be
chances for light to moderate rainfall. The rain will be
scattered to isolated across south central and eastern Wisconsin
through this afternoon. Southeastern Wisconsin may see rain
chances linger into the evening hours. Heading into tonight
clouds will clear as high pressure moves into the state from the
west. Winds will diminish and remain northerly.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 234 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The cold front across south central Wisconsin will continue
southeastward and is expected to clear the lake this evening.
Scattered rain and thunderstorms will be possible along and
behind the front. The rain will linger across the southeastern
portion of the Lake through tonight. Breezy north to northeast
winds are expected behind the frontal boundary with gusts of 20
to 26 kts. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the
southern Wisconsin nearshore zones due to the gusty winds and
increasing waves. A Moderate swim risk is expected across
Sheboygan and Ozaukee Co with a High swim risk across Milwaukee,
Racine and Kenosha Cos. The swim risk and the Small Craft
Advisory will persist into tonight when high pressure builds in
and winds weaken.

High pressure centered over the Canadian Great Plains will
advance into the western Great Lakes Region during the day on
Monday. Winds will weak and remain out of the north during this
time. The high will cross Lake Michigan Monday night, resulting
in light and variable surface winds. Periods of unsettled
weather will return Tuesday afternoon through late week as a
broad area of 29.5 inch low pressure migrates from the Rocky
Mountains into the Great Plains. Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday and Friday through Saturday are currently favored for
the best shower and thunderstorm chances.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 7 AM
     Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 1 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Monday.

&&

$$

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