000
FXUS63 KMKX 170227
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

STILL SOME LINGERING CUMULUS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE
TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY WITH
IFR/LIFR VSBYS. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN OTHER LOW AREAS/RIVER
VALLEYS. EXPECTING MORE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS TO POP UP
ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY EASES
BUT AGAIN THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS (COLDER 500 MILLIBAR TEMPS)
PERSIST WELL INTO THE PLAINS. SO WHILE THE CURRENT CU FIELD WILL
DIURNALLY DISSIPATE....EXPECT MORE CU TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
925 TEMPS MODIFY A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH THE TEENS CELSIUS. ONSHORE
FLOW EVOLVES WITH LAKE BREEZE FORMATION THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND DRIFT EASTWARD. DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE DURATION...SO
EXPECT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ON A WARMING TREND...ENDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY SATURDAY AND LOWS APPROACHING 60. MODELS
TAKE TURNS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ON SOME OF THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OVERALL
FORCING WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER SO KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS EACH DAY AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A LAKE BREEZE.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO SOUTHERN WI NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS HOLDS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD LONGER THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF DROPS A
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS US WARM AND DRIER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CU FIELD TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. EXPECTING MORE VFR CU TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC