000
FXUS63 KMKX 290130 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
730 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

.UPDATE...

AREA RADARS SHOWING VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES SLOWLY DIMINISHING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. REMOVED FLURRY WORDING AS
NO OBSERVATION SITES ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION...WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT.

BACK EDGE OF CLOUD DECK SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR THE
DELLS...TO WATERTOWN...TO RACINE. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
MOVE INTO AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF MADISON LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH CLOUD EFFECTS ON LOWS
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...THEN TO
THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TAF SITES BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO MADISON AFTER 10Z FRIDAY...AND
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM LATER TONIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...VEERING SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THESE WINDS MAY GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MAIN ISSUE THROUGH TOMORROW IS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL GET LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. IN
ADDITION...SKIES ARE ALREADY MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SW AND WILL
PROBABLY ALSO CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE MAINLY GOING
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE SNOWPACK MOST
PLACES AND THE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...MAY SEE TEMPS
LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. HAVE THUS GONE A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE
CONSENSUS OF MODELS.

SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW TO WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY. THE
NAM IS TRYING TO BRING LOW CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT THE CURRENT NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS A BIT
OVERDONE...SO OPTING FOR MORE SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD
MODIFY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY...BE WE/LL SEE SOME
CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING TROF/WARM ADVECTION. THE TROF/CDFNT
WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA BY SAT EVENING...EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z SUN WITH A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN. THIS
ISN/T A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND WILL ONLY DROP TEMPS BACK A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUN. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FAST AND ZONAL AND LIKELY WILL
BE DIRTY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS...SO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

THE MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH MON AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION COMING ALONG WITH IT. THE SURFACE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE HOLDING OFF WELL TO THE WEST. THE ECMWF/GEM
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE UPPER TROF WHILE THE
GFS IS GENERALLY DRY. WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS AS THE COMPROMISE.
THE FORCING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALIVE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK BUT
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE HANDLING THIS EVOLUTION DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF
HAS MUCH MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WED
COMPARED TO THE FLATTER AND FASTER FLOW OF THE GFS. THIS RESULTS
IN A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE
GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HARD TO KNOW WHICH WILL WIN OUT...BUT
GIVEN THE SIMILAR LOOK FROM THE GEM TO THE ECMWF...BEFORE IT
DROPPED OUT...WILL ASSUME A SLOWER PROGRESSION. AT THIS
POINT...ANY PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOOKING MINIMAL AND COULD
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THAT
THRESHOLD. WITH THE MID/UPPER FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THE
GFS/ECMWF IS STARTING TO HINT AT AN INTERESTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. IT/S A POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR WISCONSIN...IF IT
DEVELOPS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM IS TRYING TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT THE CURRENT NAM LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEMS OVERDONE...SO OPTING TO GO WITH SCT CIGS AT THIS
POINT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE ALONG
SHORE WINDS WILL BUILD HIGHER WAVES...PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS SEEM TOO BORDERLINE TO PUT OUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THIS FAR OUT...BUT ONE MAY BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY IF MODELS KEEP THE BREEZIER WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS