Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250442
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1142 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...


VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. Mid and high level
clouds will move across the area at times through tomorrow. Models
backing off on the potential for fog near Lake Michigan later
tonight into Tuesday morning as higher dewpoints are slower to
arrive.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 856 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017)

UPDATE...

Due to the dry low levels expect mainly VIRGA tonight in the radar
returns over south central Wisconsin.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Due to the dry low levels expect mainly VIRGA tonight in the radar
returns over south central Wisconsin.

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. Mid and high level
clouds will move across the area at times through tomorrow. A
couple models are showing the potential for fog near Lake Michigan
later tonight into Tuesday morning as higher dewpoints arrive,
but not sold on this due to how dry it is in the low levels.

MARINE...

The strong inversion has prevented much of the winds from mixing
down to the water surface. Eventually the persistent southeast
winds will gust to 20 knots at times and result in waves of 2-4
feet over the next couple days. Overall, it looks like winds and
waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria through
Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high:

Clouds will increase tonight into Tuesday as high pressure departs
and low pressure approaches. Rain should hold off most places
tomorrow, with a few showers possible in the west during the
afternoon.

Models are suggesting some fog near lake Michigan later tonight
into Tue morning, but not biting on this for now given how dry the
low levels are.

Filtered sunshine through mid and high level clouds should bring
another pleasant day Tuesday, with highs in the low 70s except for
cooler once again near Lake Michigan.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium to
high:

Low pressure will slowly move though Wisconsin Tue night through
Thursday, bringing multiple rounds of showers. Looks like enough
of the warm sector gets into the forecast area later Tue night
through Wed evening for a decent chance for thunderstorms. There
remains a Marginal Risk for severe storms across roughly the
southeast half of the forecast area on Wednesday.

Above normal temps Wednesday are expected to fall to below normal
for Thursday behind the departing low pressure system.

Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence is medium:

The active pattern is expected to continue for the end of the week
into early next week. There is less agreement among models with
timing of low pressure systems during this period, though there is
general agreement for at least a couple more rounds of rainfall. A
current blend of models suggests temps will be at least a few
degrees below normal through this period, resulting in a cool and
soggy end to April.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. Mid and high level
clouds will move across the area at times through tomorrow. A
couple models are showing the potential for fog near Lake Michigan
later tonight into Tuesday morning as higher dewpoints arrive,
but not sold on this due to how dry it is in the low levels.

MARINE...

Persistent southeast winds will gust to 20 knots at times and
result in waves of 2-4 feet over the next couple days. Overall, it
looks like winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Tuesday Night through Monday...DDV


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