000
FXUS63 KMKX 100830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HEIGHTS TODAY WITH FLOW TILTING FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO WITH
SURFACE FLOW TURNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESULTED IN PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS AND EVEN A
FEW SPRINKLES AROUND JANESVILLE BUT THESE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
BEFORE SUNRISE. TIME HEIGHT FROM RUC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRYING STARTING THIS MORNING. COULD END UP SUNNY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN AGAIN AHEAD OF TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD UP AROUND 40F AS EXPECTED IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND MIXING REGIME WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW
DECREASES AND SKIES CLEAR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.

925 MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING ALL NIGHT AND SHOULD PEAK SOMEWHERE
IN THE RANGE OF +10C TO +12C BY 18Z BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
LOOKING UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...AREAS WITH SNOWPACK AND RATHER THICK
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MANAGED TO BE ISOTHERMAL FROM THE SURFACE TO
925 MB. THUS...PRETTY GOOD CHANCE TO HIT 50F IN SOME AREAS AND
WOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IF WE CAN MUSTER A MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE GIVEN MUCH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS AROUND 130 METERS. FALLS UP TO 50 METERS SPREAD AS FAR EAST
AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...WEAK FRONT PUSHES TOWARD
ILLINOIS BORDER AND STALLS. MODEST ASCENT IN WARM ADVECTION AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REGIME RESULTS IN THICKENING MID CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

925 MB TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE NIGHT BUT STILL AVERAGE
+5C BY 12Z...SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

06Z NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS
AND/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH BRINGING A SWATH OF QPF WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THIS
AREA OF QPF IS BEING DRIVEN BY MODERATE 850 MB TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AREA SHIFTS INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND INTENSIFIES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS DOES CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS INDICATES LOW LEVELS DO SATURATE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH SATURATION ELSEWHERE IN AIR COLUMN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL LIGHT RAIN. AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME MIXING OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE DAY.

BROUGHT HIGH POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS IN FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING...LOWER TO THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...WITH LIGHT SNOW.

PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WARRANTED KEEPING LOW POPS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LACKING
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH LIGHT QPF TRENDS...SO WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 10000 FEET FIRST THING THIS MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR. MID CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWER AND THICKEN TO ABOUT 10000 FEET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS
MAY LOWER TO ABOUT 5000 FEET BY MIDDAY TUESDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER TO SNOW
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MILD WEATHER MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH MELTING OF ICE
OVER THE LAKE TO PERMIT WAVE DEVELOPMENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED REGARDLESS FOR THE WINDS.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BRING BRISK WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD