Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 100230
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS LARGE AREA OF
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SETTLES IN. TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED 5 TO
8 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
SUSCEPTIBLE SPOTS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWERED TEMPS 1 TO
3 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH DEWPTS LINGERING IN THE MID 50S
IN SOME MARINE INFLUENCED EASTERN AREAS...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THESE AREAS. ALSO ADDED FOG MENTION TO WI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART. MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT KENW AND
KMSN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

LINGERING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH
TONIGHT...BUT DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SO NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG.

IT SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AGAIN THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF
AS A 90 KNOT WEST TO EAST JET MAX ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA REACHES
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WEST ACROSS
WISCONSIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM...THEN COOL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SATURATION OCCURS...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND
OF MODERATE UPWARD MOTION WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A BAND OF HIGHER
850/700 MB DEW POINTS AND 700 MB SATURATION.

THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS ACROSS IOWA AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY WEAKENS TO 35 KNOTS AS IT REACHES SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM TAKES AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WEAKENS IT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MID/UPPER JET MAX REACHES NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SATURDAY AS THE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW INCREASES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A 700 MB
TROUGH EXITS THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS.

THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND 10 CELSIUS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN COOL AS THE 700 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST
NORTHWEST. THE 850 MB LEVELS COOL NORTH TOWARDS SHEBOYGAN WITH
WARMING STILL OCCURRING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF MADISON. ZERO TO
1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 100 JOULES/KM OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE CAP IS WEAKEST OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. MOST
MODELS ARE DRY EXCEPT FOR A HUNDREDTH OR SO ON THE GFS.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A LARGE UPPER
LOW FROM EASTERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO SUNDAY AND MOVES
IT TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS
MUCH WETTER ON THE GFS.  PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF AND DGEX.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THE TROUGH STILL LAGGING
ACROSS WISCONSIN.

THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE DIURNAL CLOUDS EACH DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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