Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220401

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1101 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017


Very quiet across the area overnight. The only threat for fog is
close to Lake Michigan. If we see any dense fog, it should stay
close to the shore. There`s a better chance for it to spread
inland up toward Sheboygan. At this point the GOES16 microphysics
imagery is only really showing the fog around the Manitowoc area
and points north.



Fog associated with Lake Michigan will bring some MVFR VSBYS to
KMKE/KUES/KENW TAF sites through about 12-13z Friday. It could
become IFR very close to the shoreline. Otherwise, look for VFR
conditions with mostly clear skies once the fog dissipates. Winds
will be southerly.



A marine dense fog advisory has been issued for Port Washington
and points north. The fog should dissipate by mid morning on
Friday. Otherwise, winds and waves will remain below small craft
advisory levels into the weekend.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 851 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017)


The main concern tonight is the possible development of fog near
the lake from Port Washington north toward Sheboygan. So far, the
fog has stay up by Manitowoc and points north. Much of the short
range guidance does show some fog push in, but it`s transient and
moves quickly north with time. So confidence that it will become
a problem is rather low at this time. We`ll keep an eye on trends
and issue any dense fog advisories if needed.


There could be some fog developing out over the water given our
warm and humid airmass. So far, it appears the fog will mostly
stay north of Sheboygan, but mariners should be prepared for fog.
Otherwise, winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
levels into the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 545 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017)


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain southerly less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017)


Tonight and Friday - Confidence...Medium to High
The main story will continue to be the unseasonable heat and
humidity. The return flow around the departing high will setup
overnight and pick up even further on Friday. The 500 millibar
heights will gradually build up as well within the broadly
anticyclonic southwest mid level flow. The southerly flow will
reinforce 925 temps in the mid 20s celsius. So expecting near
record high minimums tonight with some record highs in jeopardy
for Friday with highs pushing to near 90.

Friday night through Monday...Forecast confidence high.

A strong upper ridge from the central USA to the ern Great Lakes
will move slowly to the Mid Atlantic states during this period.
At the sfc, high pressure will remain centered over the ern Great
Lakes and Mid Atlantic states with a n-s sfc trough/cold front
from the srn Great Plains to ne MN or nw WI. A light sly flow will
prevail over srn WI with continued very warm and humid conditions.
Record high temps are possible inland for Sat-Sun while a Lake MI
lake breeze is expected each afternoon.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence

An upper trough lifting newd from the wrn USA may induce
cyclogenesis along over Ontario, Canada. This would drive a cold
front through srn WI either Tue or Wed with chances of showers or
storms. High temps should cool into the upper 60s for Wed-Thu.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Overall VFR period expected as return flow
sets up. Looks like enough wind off the deck to keep widespread
fog at bay. But some patchy fog not out of the question. Some
concern for LLWS across parts of SC WI as the low level flow
strengthens above the inversion. Surface SSE flow picks up for
Friday with little cloud cover and building 500 millibar heights.

MARINE...Winds will be on the light side right into the upcoming
weekend, with low waves expected as a result.


LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LMZ643.



Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
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