Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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685
FXUS63 KMKX 120518
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1118 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...

A few flurries will be possible for the next few hours, though no
impacts or accumulation is expected. Winds will remain gusty from
the northwest overnight and through most of the day tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Ceilings have lifted a bit more than initially expected, and now
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail overnight. A few
pockets/brief periods of MVFR is possible, but should be the
exception rather than rule.

North to northwest winds will remain quite gusty overnight and
through most of the day tomorrow, finally settling down with
sunset tomorrow evening. Gusts up to 30 KT will be common tonight
and tomorrow.

&&

MARINE...

Hazardous marine conditions are ramping up this evening as
northwest winds become quite gusty. In addition to the winds,
a fair amount of wave action is expected as well in the nearshore
waters, with 6-9 ft waves near open waters.

Gale Warning continues for the nearshore waters until mid morning
on Tuesday. There is some potential that this may need to be
extended by a few hours if winds remain elevated. Regardless,
a Small Craft Advisory will be necessary following the Gale
Warning for continued gusty winds and high waves.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 219 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Rest of this afternoon...

The snow band has set up about a tier of counties farther south
than expected, focusing on Walworth, Racine and Kenosha counties.
It will continue to drop south through the afternoon.
Additionally, temps have warmed into the mid 30s across that area,
so plenty of melting on roadways is occurring. There could be some
icy conditions develop as temperatures fall this evening.

Tonight through Tuesday night...Forecast confidence is high.

Cold. Any lingering snow will exit out Racine/Kenosha county by
around 7 pm, then look for gusty northwest winds to usher in a
very cold airmass. The winds will remain strong and gusty through
Tuesday, settling down Tuesday night.  Wind chills late tonight
into early Tuesday morning will drop to around zero or a few
degrees below zero. The coldest night will be Tuesday night with
lows in the single digits to lower teens. Fortunately, this will
be under a narrow ridge axis, so winds will be light to calm.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Forecast confidence is medium.

The NAM/ECMWF/Canadian all show a deepening low pressure system
taking a similar track to the system this afternoon, from southern
Minnesota to Indiana. There are some differences in timing, but
this one could bring an inch or two of snow to our northeast half
of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Mainly north and east of a Kenosha to Montello line, in Marquette
county. Areas from Madison and points south and west could stay
dry.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We stay in this pesky northwest flow and there are some weak
pieces of energy that roll across the area. The guidance doesn`t
show any organization of concern, but we could see some flurries
or light snow from time to time. Little or no accum is expected.
Still cold through the end of the week.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is low.

There is a lot of uncertainty for next weekend. The ECMWF is
suggesting a strong low pressure system will track just south of
the area, bringing a band of snow across southern Wisconsin. The
GFS is much farther north and faster with the low, with a solution
that is warmer and less impactful. The GFS would potentially have
rain and a mixture across the northern portion of the forecast
area. We`ll just have to wait for the model discontinuities to get
worked out before getting concerned.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Tuesday Night through Monday...99



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