000
FXUS63 KMKX 140257
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTELING IN. FOG POTENTIAL WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOIST CONDITIONS WITH RECENT RAINS WILL BE OFFSET
BY WEAK DRY ADVECTION AND WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION ON LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS ALLOWING SOME STIRRING WITH 12 TO 15 KT WINDS AROUND
550 FT MIXING DOWN AT TIMES. LOWEST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE IN
THE 1 TO 2 DEGREE RANGE...AND WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATEST NAM
IN AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WRF MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION CLOSE
TO...BUT STILL WEST OF KMKE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE OUT
OF KMKE TAF FOR NOW. CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
ADDING TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
LOWEST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 1 TO 2 DEGREE RANGE WITH
A WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION ALLOWING SOME STIRRING WITH 12 TO 15
KT WINDS AROUND 550 FT MIXING DOWN AT TIMES. WILL SEE SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO ANY OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL COME OVERHEAD TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL. GIVEN SOME
LIGHT WIND IN THE LOW LEVELS AND HOW SHORT THE NIGHTS ARE THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR THOUGH...OPTED TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ONCE AGAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

PWAT VALUES DOUBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE OVER SRN CANADA/MONTANA. BEST
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET AFFECTS SOUTHEAST
MN/EASTERN IA BEFORE LLJ PIVOTS AND WEAKENS LATE FRI NIGHT.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA REMAINS OVER IA BUT A SMALL AREA CLIPS
SOUTHWEST WI.  HENCE WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THIS AREA...TRAILING
OFF TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST.

LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...HOWEVER DOES REENERGIZE ACROSS NRN IL SAT NGT.  SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER SAT AFTN AND
EVENING.  IN ADDITION...ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT FROM PASSING RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET.  WL CONTINUE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING.

SIGNS POINT TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ILLINOIS GETTING NUDGED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF SUNDAY WAS DRY BUT
FOR NOW KEPT SMALL POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS FEATURES CARRIES SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI DURING THIS PERIOD. EARLIER DETERMINISTIC GFS FASTER WITH FRONT
PASSAGE HOWEVER...12Z GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER SLOWER
GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. DEPENDING UPON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF ACCOMPANYING SHORT
WAVE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT SRN WI ON MON.

SHORT WAVE SPEEDS OFF TO THE EAST LATER MONDAY WITH COOLER...DRIER
AIR SETTLING IN FOR TUESDAY.  GFS INDICATING SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY -SHRA ON TUE HOWEVER OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MORE
BULLISH ON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE NUDGING INTO THE
AREA ON TUE.  GFS SOUNDINGS TUE AFT ALSO APPEAR FAIRLY DRY ABV 3-4K
FEET. HENCE WL REMOVE SMALL POPS FOR TUE.

FOR LATER PERIODS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER WRN GTLAKES THRU THURSDAY...WITH RETURN SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU NIGHT.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE WITH THE LAKE BREEZE KEEPING LAKESHORE TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTN.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL COME OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT
RAINFALL. GIVEN SOME LIGHT WIND NEAR THE SURFACE AND HOW SHORT THE
NIGHTS ARE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

MARINE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAVES ARE ALSO
DIMINISHING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS THUS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK