Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 220748
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
248 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.
Big high pressure will continue to bring the area nearly ideal
weather into Monday. Look for highs today a few degrees warmer than
yesterday with dew points still mixing out and on the dry side. The
higher dewpoints start to sneak in here on Monday as the ridge
slides east and southerly winds return.
High pressure will bring very pleasant weather to start the work week.
Skies will be mostly sunny with above normal high temperatures.
South-southeast winds should allow for somewhat milder
temperatures near Lake Michigan.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
High pressure will slide eastward Monday night into the week,
opening the door for precipitation chances. Multiple systems are
forecast to push through during the week, bringing rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values per the GFS
are forecast to be around 1 to 1.5 inches through this period, so
there should be plenty of moisture to work with.
GFS/NAM dewpoints are likely overdone, but even the drier ECMWF
is showing a respectable amount of instability through much of
the week. It is not out of the question that a few storms could
be strong to severe at some point during the week given the setup.
It is hard to pin down a time period where severe weather chances
seem most likely given model timing/placement differences of the
multiple waves. SPC is currently highlighting a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Temperatures will likely remain above normal through the week
given persistent 925 mb temps of around 20C. Temps near the lake
are a bit tricky, as there isn`t great confidence in the winds
near the lake each day. Depending on the direction and strength of
the low level winds, could have prevailing onshore winds or a lake
breeze develop. Also, convection can throw a wrench in wind
direction. Stuck close to the consensus of model blends for now,
resulting in temps a bit cooler than inland each day.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain at or below 10kts.
High pressure will keep winds light and wave heights low through
tonight. Southerly winds and waves will increase a bit later Monday
and into Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure.
But, small craft advisory conditions are not anticipated at this
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Monday THROUGH Saturday...DDV