Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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909
FXUS63 KMKX 290253
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
853 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...Surface occlusion knocking on the CWA door. Occlusion
will be marked by veering winds to the southwest and a slight drop
in temperature as it moves through southern WI late this evening.
Showers will continue until the occlusion and mid-level short wave
low pressure trof pass through southern WI. MUCape continues to
decrease as occlusion approaches, so will remove schc for T this
evening. Drier air behind occlusion will erode low clouds as well
as showers.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Showers will diminish from west to east
across southern WI through 06-08Z or so as occluded front moves
through. Drier air in the wake of the front will help clear low
clouds across most of far southern WI but may hang on northwest of
Madison. Expect winds to shift to the southwest behind fropa as
well.


&&

.MARINE...Will continue Gale Warning until 09Z as there remains a
threat for a few gusts reaching 34-35 knots. Pressure gradient
will be slackening a bit as occluded front moves across nearshore
waters late this evening. South to southeast winds will veer to
the southwest behind the front and remain gusty. A few gusts may
also accompany the passing showers this evening as well. Gale
Warning will most likely be downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory
at 09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

A strong 150 knot jet max lifts to the north this evening followed
by a mid level trough axis that moves across southern Wisconsin
tonight. Moderate to strong upper level divergence and 700 mb upward
motion ahead of the trough.  Showers will continue this evening. A
narrow band of surface based CAPE of around 300 Joules/KG with
the occluded/cold front will be enough for a mention of
isolated thunderstorms.

A dry slot will then push across southern Wisconsin late tonight.
Mid and even low levels dry resulting is some sunshine Tuesday.  A
little increase in mid level RH during the day.  Steep low level
lapse rates should bring mild temperatures, especially southeast.
The steep lapse rates will also cause gusty southwest winds.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Forecast confidence high.

The occluded low over MN will slowly move east while a new round
of cyclogeneis will occur from the Ohio River valley into the
Lower Great Lakes. They both will consolidate over southern
Ontario Canada as a 990 mb low for late Wed night. A trough will
extend back into WI through Fri but weaken over time. The low will
bring clouds and small chances of light rain and snow to srn WI
for Wed-Thu. Temps will remain above normal during this period.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence medium.

The trough will weaken sufficiently on Fri for a dry forecast
which will be followed by a ridge of high pressure for Sat. The
GFS and WPC then brings an open wave of low pressure across the
region for Sun with chances of light snow and rain. The last two
runs of the ECMWF have produced strong cyclogenesis from the south
central USA into the Great Lakes region for Sun night and Monday.
This is discounted at this time but will watch for trends.
Temps will remain above normal through the weekend.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IFR ceilings will be dominant across the area through about mid
evening. Expect moderate southeast to south winds through this
afternoon with the center of strong low pressure over the eastern
Dakotas.

A secondary trough will lift north into southeast Wisconsin this
evening.  Showers will continue. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible, especially with the approach of an occluded/cold
front that should exit the southeast around midnight.

Expect improving flight conditions in the wake of the front later
this evening south central and after midnight southeast. A dry slot
with vfr conditions expected Tuesday with breezy southwest winds.

MARINE...

A gale warning for southeast to south wind gusts to 35 knots is in
effect through most of tonight. Expect strong winds and high waves,
with the highest in the northern marine zones.

Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight as an occluded/cold
front moves through. Gusts will likely be at small craft advisory
levels through Tuesday evening.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

$$

TONIGHT/Tuesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/Tuesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday...Gehring



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