Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 170835
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA WL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND END EARLY THIS MRNG AS SFC FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SWD.  CURRENTLY FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AS
WEAKENING PRESSURE RISES OVER CENTRAL WI SHOULD KEEP FRONT
PROGRESSING SWD.  AFFECTS OF FRONT WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL IL.

MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND EXITING CDFNT CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MRNG AND
SLOWLY ERODE IN THE AFTN...AS WEAK DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TNGT. SOME AREAS MAY VERY WELL
STAY M/CLDY MUCH OF THE DAY.  IN OTHER WORDS...A SWITCH FROM MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS SAT AFTN TO MORE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY.

WHAT EVER CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE TODAY WILL BE BRIEF AS MID-
CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT.  WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC OMEGA ALONG WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
ON 310 THETA SFC MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST LATER TNGT.  STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE WL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
SRN WI TONIGHT.  TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO ADD LATE NIGHT FOG AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STEADY 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE ROLLING
ACROSS CENTRAL WI COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING QPF SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST WI BY 00Z TUE WITH THIS
FEATURE...WHICH IS FASTER THAN WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
CLOSE OFF THERE AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO SOUTHERN WI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OVER EAST
CENTRAL WI AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE DRY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WI THOUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

AN 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WI THU AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
REGARDING THIS MOVEMENT OF THAT ZONE. THE LOCATION OF IT WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR WL GRADUALLY ERODE LATE THIS
MRNG INTO THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.  STRATUS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FOG EARLY
THIS MRNG.  -SHRA WL END EARLY THIS MRNG WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MAY BE A FEW --SHRA IN THE KMSN AREA
LATE TNGT.  TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDS TONIGHT AT THIS
POINT TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL.  WL INTRODUCE LIGHT
FOG FOR LATER TNGT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.  WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY.  DRIER AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG OR HAZE.

&&

.BEACHES...

A MODERATE SWIM RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AT LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE HIGHER WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
DIFFICULT SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS CURRENTS.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC


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