Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 090836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN DEEP...PHASED
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF
CANADA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF CANADIAN WAVE BRINGS 925 MB TEMPS UP
TO +10C TO +11C OVER WRN CWA...AND +9C TO +10C EAST BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WHICH YIELDS MID 60S HIGHS WEST AND AROUND 60 EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL BRING THE 60 DEGREE READINGS
RIGHT UP TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOLDING A CAP AROUND 800 MB...WITH
MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 870 MB/NAM AND GFS...AND 835 MB/RAP. THIS
ALLOWS TAPPING OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...BUT PREVENTS REACHING EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE.

WINDS ALOFT ARE EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT...WITH 40-50 KNOTS DOWN
TO 900 MB. THE RESULTING INVERSION WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVING
OVER TONIGHT AND ENOUGH NOCTURNAL SURFACE COOLING WILL PREVENT
MIXING THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BUT STILL EXPECT
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

00Z NAM AND CANADIAN GEM ALONG WITH WPC KEEP PCPN NORTH OF CWA
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DROP QPF INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF...OR WESTERN HALF OF CWA RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUICK HITTING SHRA POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING. SURFACE/850
FRONTS SWING THROUGH. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL OFFER CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION TO THE FORCING PROCESS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
MORNING QPF WITH THE AFTERNOON DRY. WHILE WARMEST 850 TEMPS ARE
FOUND WITHIN THE WARM PROD EXTENDING INTO SRN WI DURG THE
MORNING...AIRMASS WORKING IN UPSTREAM WILL STILL RESULT IN MILD
CONDITIONS. 925 TEMPS ACTUALLY REBOUND NICELY WITH THE DRY NW FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. SO EXPECTING MANY HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES IN WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF WAA. NAM IS DRY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME VRY LGT QPF. SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED. WILL GO WITH
A SMALL CHC FOR AFTN SHRA. 925 TEMPS BACK TO 9-11C SO MORE 60S
LIKELY ON THE WAY. THE 00Z NAM IS SHOWING 14C AND A LITTLE HIGHER
AT 925.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SHRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA SAT NGT. SHORTWAVE NOTED IN THE SW UPR FLOW AND
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AID IN VERTICAL MOTION. THERE IS
ALSO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED
WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET CORE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF WI.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO MONDAY...THUS ALLOWING FOR A BOOST TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORTER RUN AS
THE ECMWF KEEPS RAIN/SOME THUNDER GOING SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS AND
GEM ARE DRY WITH MUCH MORE PROGRESSION. BETTER CONFIDENCE ARRIVES
FOR MONDAY AS SECONDARY LOW TRENDS FASTER CATCHES UP A BIT TO THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS. 00Z ECMWF WILL STILL KEEP THINGS WET AROUND
HERE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH LESS QPF AVAILABLE WITHIN THE
COLDER AIRMASS. SO SOME CONSENSUS TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOOK
COMING INTO PLAY AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. WHILE SOME SNOW IN THE
COLDER AIR IS STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE HAVE TRIMMED DOWN AMOUNTS
CONSIDERABLY GIVEN THE ECMWF TREND TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OF THE OTHER MODELS. A CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO SO
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 40. A STEADY NORTH WIND
WILL ONLY ADD TO THE BITE.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
GFS AND ECMWF NOT IN SYNC WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VORT ACTION
RIDING ACROSS STATE AT THE BASE OF LARGER SCALE POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE ANTICYCLONIC LOOK
TO THE FLOW PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ALLBLEND POPS
ARE GOING WITH THE DRY LOOK. TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
ANY PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THERMAL RIDGE
MOVING OVER REGION WILL SET UP AN INVERSION. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POTENTIAL AFTER 03Z AS 40KT-45KT WINDS DIP DOWN TO AROUND 1K FT.
SFC WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO NOT ADD AT
THIS TIME...BUT IF THEY DECOUPLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL
HAVE TO ADD LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH 40-45 KT WINDS DIPPING DOWN TO 1K FT. HOWEVER...COLD
WATER WILL SET UP ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION TO PREVENT MIXING THESE
STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND OFFSHORE FETCH WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS.
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES. DRY DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WILL PRODUCE
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THAT WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
PERCENT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA UNDER 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



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