Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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182
FXUS63 KMKX 291551 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
951 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Highs were nudged up a degree or so, but otherwise the forecast
looks on track through the remainder of the day. Skies will be
mostly sunny with temps well above normal for late November.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will likely persist into Wednesday morning ahead of
an approaching low. Light precipitation and lower clouds are
expected to then move in from the west by Wed afternoon as the low
moves eastward through the state. A blend of model temps at the
surface and aloft puts precip type right on the edge of either
rain or snow, so may just stick with a rain snow mix, depending on
how the bulk of 12Z guidance comes in. If snow does occur,
accumulations are not expected given the borderline temps.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect south of Milwaukee until 3 pm
and north of Milwaukee through 6 pm today.  Strong low pressure over
Minnesota will keep breezy sswly winds across the area into the
afternoon. The winds will gradually diminish by middle to late
afternoon as the pressure gradient decreases and winds turn due
south. High waves are expected especially north of North Point
Lighthouse where the high waves will linger until 6 pm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

We will be within the dry slot on the southern periphery of a large
and stacked closed low, centered over Minnesota.  The low will
remain in place through the period and gradually fill.  The dry slot
will provide some sunshine today along with gusty southerly winds
within a steep low level lapse rate. The thermal ridge axis will be
located southeast of Wisconsin, but close enough to still bring
southern Wisconsin rather mild temps for late November. A trough
rotating around the low will bring another mid level short wave
northeast across Illinois into Lower Michigan. Although any precip
with that should stay southeast of Wisconsin, we`ll likely see an
increase in mid and high level clouds across the southeast later
this afternoon. In addition, our far northwest forecast area could
see more clouds due to the proximity to the main upper low. It is
the central part of the forecast area that will likely see the most
sunshine today.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The surface and upper lows drift across WI on Wednesday and cyclonic
flow dominates through Thursday. There are small precip chances
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning as a shortwave moves
through. Wet bulb soundings indicate snow will be mixed in at times.
Some areas may see a dusting on grassy surfaces but no accumulation
is expected on pavement.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

The surface low moves away on Friday and quiet weather is in store.
There is still a shortwave near the region but RH values are
decreasing with approaching high pressure. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler with northwest flow behind the low. Lows will drop
below freezing.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Forecast confidence is low..

There is a lot of model disagreement for this time period. The last
several runs of the ECMWF have been showing low pressure moving up
from the Gulf of Mexico bringing a chance for light accumulating
snow Sunday night. The GFS and NAM have come on board with this
system but keep it much farther south and out of WI.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A large and
stacked low pressure system over Minnesota will remain nearly
stationary and gradually weaken.  Southern Wisconsin will be within
the dry slot on the southern periphery of the low.  Steepening low
level lapse rates will bring gusty southerly winds today, but those
will diminish rapidly as we approach sunset this afternoon.  Look
for increasing mid and high level clouds as a mid level short wave
passes just to the south of Wisconsin this afternoon and tonight.

MARINE...

A small craft advisory is in effect south of Milwaukee until 3 pm
and north of Milwaukee through 6 pm today.  Strong low pressure over
Minnesota will keep breezy southerly winds across the area this
morning. Although winds will decrease by mid afternoon, the waves
will take a bit more time to come down.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/Gehring
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Marquardt



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