Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 162015
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
215 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is high.
The main focus through the weekend is on temperatures and how warm
we will get. A surface warm front will move through southern
Wisconsin tomorrow morning, which will mark the beginning of the
warm snap. 850mb temperatures off of the 16.12z guidance suggests
that tomorrow will be the warmest day of the next few with 850mb
temps reaching +13C. Nudged high temperatures up a little bit more
for tomorrow, but think that the 60s could be more widespread than
currently advertised given that there will be full sun through the
While the air mass modifies some going into the weekend,
850/925mb temps remain on the mild side with a broad ridge of high
pressure sitting over the Upper Mississippi Valley region. Thus,
the above normal temperatures should stay through the next few
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
The next chances for any precipitation (ie...rain) come in on
Monday as the next system approaches. Left some small chances for
rain in for Monday morning/afternoon as the 16.12z GEM has a WAA
wing of rain developing across southern Wisconsin while the
16.12z GFS/ECMWF are trending dry for the day. Since previous
model runs of the GFS/ECMWF had a hint of this rain, have left
some low chance POPs in there for now. The main shot of rain
appears to be late Monday night into Tuesday morning as a cold
front pulls through. Rainfall amounts look fairly low in the 0.10"
to 0.25" range before high pressure settles in through midweek.
The mild air mass stays in place through at least the middle of
next week as well with 850mb temperatures sitting between +6C to
+11C over this period.
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. The high clouds
currently overhead will remain in place before clearing out
Friday morning. Some short term models are hinting at some patchy
fog development in the early morning hours, which seems possible
given high moisture and light winds. However, confidence remains
low that anything below VFR vis will develop, so will be leaving
it out of this TAF issuance.
Winds will generally be on the light side and less than 20kts
through the weekend with high pressure moving into the Great
Lakes region. Winds will begin to increase out of the south early
next week as the next cold front approaches the region.
TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday/Marine...Halbach