Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS63 KMKX 241920
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
220 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWARD. DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA.

HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5000 TO 10000
FEET OVER THE AREA AND EVEN TO THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE AREA OF 35 TO
40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA.

HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION...SHIFTING
NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST AND FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WENT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
DRY.

MAINLY BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...MID 50S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S INLAND...AROUND 70
LAKESIDE. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN THERE BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.


.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE AND
KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. VERY LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN HIGH/LOWS FROM DAY
TO DAY WILL OCCUR. PERSISTENCE IS A GREAT FORECAST IN PATTERNS
LIKE THIS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE DEPICTING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL. THEY HAVE BOTH BACK AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO AND JUST
SHOW THE SFC RIDGE DRIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WITH A LARGE TROF DIGGING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND PUSHING EAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROF AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAINLY BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THEY MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE
DAY. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF MADISON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. MAY SEE
SOME GROUND FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AT KENOSHA...WAUKESHA AND
MADISON. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORY
AT WORST...IF IT OCCURS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.