Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 152336 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
636 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the day Saturday.
Will see high clouds at times, but otherwise mostly clear skies
will persist. Should be enough wind in the lower levels tonight to
limit any fog development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday - Confidence...High
A southerly wind flow is expected to be keep things unseasonably
warm this period. Low pressure and an associated cold front will
remain to our west with the LLJ and mid level energy focusing
precip to our west and northwest. We will remain within the warm
sector with 925 temps reaching the lower 20s celsius. So highs
will be in the 80s with some cooler temps evolving as onshore
component takes shape.

Saturday night and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Much of the better mid level forcing pivots off to our north
though some energy rides across along with the low level forcing
associated with the surface/850 cold front. Some instability to
work with though front will be coming through at a diurnally
unfavorable time with models not showing a great deal of QPF
across the CWA later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looks
like front will be off to our east for the afternoon so rain
chances would be trailing off as influence of drier air push and
incoming high pressure start to take hold.

Monday and Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Southwest mid level flow persists. A shortwave rides in and
brings another round of shra/tsra. Models suggest this would be
later Monday though more likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.
this accompanied by the leading edge of some WAA. Energy shifts
off to the east for Tuesday afternoon with more ridging building
in. Further southerly flow sets up especially on the GFS for
Tuesday afternoon bringing a reinforcing shot of warmer air.

Wednesday through Friday - Confidence...Low to Medium
No sign of any sort of cool-down as mid level flow remains
southwest with some higher heights building in with the cwa on the
southeast fringe of the better flow aloft. So while confidence is
there for the continuation of warm airmass there is less
confidence as it pertains to timing of precip. The GFS continues
to be the more active solution wrt QPF. The GFS and GEM bring a
trough through on Wednesday night while the ECMWF has this system
much slower and holds off until Thursday night or so.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Overall VFR through the period. Mid level
flow broadly anticyclonic with low level southerly winds into
Saturday. All mid level energy and low level forcing remains to
our west so quiet weather. With enough mixing expected with at
least a light south wind, fog potential looks overall low. Some
LLWS potential later tonight across the western cwa.

MARINE...A southerly flow will persist into Saturday night ahead
of an approaching cold front. Am expecting these winds to remain
below small craft levels, though some gusts could get close at
times. After the front passes Sunday morning the winds will shift
to the west or northwest.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...DDV
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Saturday Night through Friday...Collar



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