Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 140035
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
635 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.UPDATE...

Warm advection continues tonight with a 40 knot southwest to
westerly low-level jet passing overhead. This will keep surface
winds up into the 5 to 10 knot range tonight with decent boundary
layer mixing. Temperatures will remain mild as a result, with
lows mostly in the lower 20s. The mild temperatures continue into
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 30s to perhaps lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions into Wednesday, with low level wind shear possible
tonight. Otherwise, some lower clouds are possible on Wednesday
night, however confidence in this occurring is not high.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 315 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Wednesday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper flow remains rather zonal. The southwest surface flow
increases, along with low level moisture. Expect clearing mid
clouds, but fog problematic due to increasing winds. Then low
levels saturate, but mainly Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A broad mid/upper trough approaches.

Biggest problem initially is fog potential. SREF has a rather
high signal with low visibilities developing Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. MOS is not indicating much in dense fog though.

Models continue to keep the bulk of the precipitation south of
southern Wisconsin Thursday night with the main frontal band, but
the GFS and ECMWF does have some light precipitation with the
upper trough. Temperatures drop Thursday night into Friday with
cold air advection on north winds.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Saturday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper flow becomes more zonal, then becomes southwest ahead
of a strong shortwave over the northern plains before moving into
Wisconsin.

Looks like quiet weather with high pressure Friday, then a
renewed warm air advection pattern setting up Saturday, with a
chance of light snow.

Sunday and Monday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Another trough begins to develop over the western U.S.

The moderation in temperatures continues Sunday with a trough
across the area Monday.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions expected through Wednesday, with middle clouds
exiting the area by evening. Low level wind shear possible
tonight with south winds around 10 knots at the surface and
southwest at 35 to 40 knots at 1200 feet. Wind shear threat should
end around 15z Wednesday.

MARINE...

Gusty south winds expected today and tonight will reach small
craft advisory criteria north of North point lighthouse.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

Update...SPM
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Hentz



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