Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING


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