Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 162033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

There will likely be a round of showers and a few storms later this
evening into tonight, with a decent shot of warm advection expected
as a shortwave rolls through. The deeper moisture and higher
instability values are expected in the north, thus have highest pops
there. It will be quite mild tonight for mid-October, with lows 20-
25 degrees above season normals.

There may be a couple lingering showers in the morning, with better
rain chances coming in the afternoon as another wave approaches.
Could be some thunder in the afternoon as well given decent mixed
layer CAPE values.

Temperatures tomorrow will be tricky once again, as temps aloft will
be very mild, but it may be cloudy much of the day. Went near a
consensus blend of models. This forecast may be off a bit in
either direction for any given location, depending on if the sun
pops out at all.

.MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

A strong surface low will track from southeast MN to northeast
Wisconsin. We could see some lingering showers or storms over the
north half of the forecast area early in the evening, otherwise,
all the activity should lift north of southern Wisconsin quickly.
The tight pressure gradient ahead of the low, combined with a
mixed sounding in the low levels, should bring rather strong and
gusty southerly winds Monday evening, diminishing toward morning
as the trailing trough and cold front arrive after midnight.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Overall, this period should be dry. Surface high pressure is slow
to move in from the west and eventually slides east by Saturday.
The mid level flow remains fast, but all the potential embedded
shortwaves through Wed will be located to our north. One
potential gotcha is when the upper flow buckles with a trough
coming through on Thursday. The ECMWF and Canadian generate some
light qpf across the east, while the GFS is dry. The column looks
quite dry, so will keep it dry for now, but recognize that we
might throw some small chcs in subsequent forecasts around that
Thursday time frame. Brief ridging returns for later Friday into
Saturday with higher confidence in dry conditions.

Tuesday will be the warmest day, followed by a steady cooling
trend through the rest of the week with highs in the 50s by

.SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

We should be in a cooler northwest mid level flow at this point,
and there is a wave that dives in that could bring us a chance of



Seeing a mix of mainly MVFR/VFR conditions at the moment, with
breaks in the cloud cover as expected. Should see a return of
widespread low clouds this evening into tonight, lasting into at
least Monday morning.

There will be a chance for showers and a few storms by later
this evening into tonight...with lingering chances into Monday. It
still looks like the north will have the highest chance for precip.



South to southwest winds will increase on Monday ahead of
approaching low pressure, with gusts likely reaching Small Craft
Advisory levels Monday evening and night. Held off on an advisory
for now, but looking more likely that one will eventually be needed
for this period.


.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday...Davis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.