Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150926
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
326 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

There is uncertainty today with coverage of stratocumulus. The model
dewpoints have been too high with forecast soundings easily
saturating in the low levels. This particularly affects the NAM MOS
guidance which does show some signal for broken stratocumulus.
However still fairly cold aloft today so at least some clouds
expected. Will go with partly cloudy skies developing later this
morning. Middle to high clouds will then gradually increase through
the afternoon via warm advection. 850-700 mb warm advection and
frontogenesis will then shift ewd across srn WI tonight, thereby
maintaining a cloud cover. The overall lift is rather weak so do not
expect snow. Went a little milder with temps today and tonight
given more sunshine than expected for today and overcast skies for
tonight.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

A meridional flow pattern prevails aloft, and features amplified
ridging progressing from the Intermountain West into the western
Great Lakes. Southerly return flow sets up on Thursday and mostly
continues into Friday as weak surface troughing passes through.
Expect some clouds in association with the trough, but any
precipitation should remain well to our north in Canada closer to
the surface low. Strong warm advection should bring temperatures
well above seasonal averages by Friday, with highs in the 40s east
to 50s west.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Mid-level ridging continues aloft, with a few ripples passing
through it. Southerly flow and robust warm advection will precede a
weak surface trough, possibly resulting in near record highs in the
50s on Saturday. Mild readings should continue into Sunday, but
expect cooler temps by the Lake as winds veer north/northeast
following the trough`s passage. Some clouds are expected from time
to time, but we`ll stay precipitation free.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

A northern stream shortwave tracks across south central Canada and
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, while southern stream energy
carves out a closed low over the southern Plains. Model
differences exist regarding the placement and phasing (or lack
thereof) of these features. There is general agreement in a
surface trough/cold front passing through our area Monday night or
Tuesday and a resulting chance for precipitation. This
precipitation would be in the form of rain showers as temperatures
remain well above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Sct020-030 stratocumulus will develop later
this morning. There is a small potential for the clouds to become
broken. Middle to high clouds will then increase through the
afternoon as warm advection begins. The clouds will continue
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 3 PM today for brisk
northwest winds and 3 to 5 foot waves. The winds and waves will
gradually subside through the afternoon.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...SPM


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