Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 031526
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ELONGATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EASTERN LAKES. WATER VAPOR/RAP VORT
ANIMATION SHOWS CIRCULATION ACRS NRN/ERN IL SHIFTING EAST WITH
HIGH CLOUDS ON NRN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE DECREASE ACRS SE
WI. EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION FROM NRN WI WITH NRN ENERGY/FRONT TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. VERY WEAK TROUGH
AND WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL NECESSITATE VRY SML POPS FOR SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF CAPE THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH GIVEN WEAK FLOW AROUND UPPER MIDWEST. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF ON THE MORE ROBUST
6Z SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...MODIS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGER MEASURED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND MID-LAKE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 50. LAKE TEMPERATURE REMAINED IN THE COOLER 40S FARTHER
NORTH OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHIPPEWA BASIN.
WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE SFC TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATEST LAKESHORE
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT HAZE WHICH SHOULD THIN AS THE WINDS START
TO STIR A BIT. HENCE EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OBSCURED.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IL THAT IS BRINGING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
SRN WI WILL MOVE EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. MOST OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TNT WITH ITS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TNT AND REACH CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SAT. PWS WILL
INCREASE TO 1 INCH LATE TNT AND THERE MAY BE SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA VIA CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NRN WI.

FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F AT THE LAKEFRONT. FOR TNT TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER THANKS TO THE WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS BUT ALSO DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTH WITH A LGT WLY FLOW EXPECTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH. MOST OF THE LIFT SATURDAY SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE
LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. DEWPOINTS ARE PROBABLY A BIT TOO
HIGH ON THE GFS AND NAM...LIKELY RESULTING IN OVERDONE
INSTABILITY. MORE CONSERVATIVE MODELS STILL SHOWING SURFACE BASED
CAPE PEAKING AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...SO SOME CONVECTION IS NOT
UNREASONABLE. FORTUNATELY...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...SO HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON FIREWORK SHOWS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT LESS OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND MOST PLACES...ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES. CAPE
VALUES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND
THAT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN WI
TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TNT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
FOG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



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