Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280941
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
341 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

Rain associated with deep moisture and strong synoptic forcing is
exiting southeast WI early this morning. Expect a few hours of light
rain showers or drizzle to linger another few hours due to
persistent upward motion. Drier air in the 850-500mb level is
working its way into southern WI this morning (dry slot) which is
ending our precip.

Plenty of low level moisture will help to keep the clouds intact
all day. The tight pressure gradient over the area due to the
center of the occluded low parked over the eastern Dakotas will
allow for southerly wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range today.

There will be another round of showers developing in southern WI
this afternoon as a strong push of vorticity advection, negatively
tilted shortwave trough, strong 700mb upward motion, and upper
divergence in the exit region of the upper jet focus over us once
again. Steep mid level lapse rates will give us another chance of
thunder. Meso models have a more convective look to the precip late
this afternoon compared to that first round last night.

Showers will exit from SW to NE around midnight as that upper
trough gets through. Surface winds will shift to the southwest.


.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

Mid level ridging and drier air will dominate for Tuesday. A weak
surface trough passes through SE WI Tuesday night bringing small
precip chances to the east. The surface and upper lows drift across
WI on Wednesday. There are small precip chances Wednesday and
Thursday with shortwave activity and broad cyclonic flow. Some snow
may be mixed in at times but no accumulation is expected.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The surface low moves away on Friday and right now the end of the
week looks quiet. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with northwest
flow behind the low. Lows will drop below freezing.

There is a lot of model disagreement for early next week with the
next system.


&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR conditions will be dominant across the area through about mid
evening. Expect moderate to strong southerly winds through this
afternoon as the center of strong low pressure lifts north into the
eastern Dakotas.

After a lull in the precip this morning, a secondary low will lift
north across Illinois into southeast Wisconsin this afternoon and
evening. Another surge of rain will arrive late in the afternoon,
with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Expect improving flight
conditions in the wake of the secondary low later Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...

A gale warning for southerly wind gusts to 35 knots is in effect
through most of tonight. The strong winds will build high waves, the
highest in the northern marine zones.

Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight as an occluded/cold
front moves through. Gusts could be at small craft advisory levels
through Tuesday evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Marquardt


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