Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151558 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.UPDATE...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FORECAST SNOWFALL SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK GIVEN UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND THE 12Z NAM. LATEST NAM AND
RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL START IN THE WEST BY 4 PM AND
IN THE EAST BY 6 PM. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF SNOW WILL FALL
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
STILL LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL START IN THE WEST BY 4 PM AND IN THE EAST BY
6 PM. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF SNOW WILL FALL PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL LOOKS
ABOUT RIGHT. IT WILL BE A DRY SNOW...WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF
AROUND 17 TO 1.

UPSTREAM OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE
SNOWFALL...WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 1 TO 2 MILES...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
DOWN TO 1/2SM.

LOOKS LIKE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY...AS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WHILE A THIRD WAVE APPROACHES. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES SUNDAY...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NRN IL AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN IS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO AND A STRONGER WAVE
OVER MT/IDAHO. THE CO SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NEWD AND MOVE ACROSS SRN
WI THIS EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME BUT THE PVA IS MORE PRONOUNCED. THE
LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SUN
BUT THE 500 MB DRY SLOT WILL KEEP THE SNOW VERY LIGHT.

THUS MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. QPF TOTALS ARE RANGING FROM
0.08-0.12 INCHES WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS DUE TO THE VERY COLD
TROPOSPHERE. SNOW TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OVER THE WRN CWA.

HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TODAY WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS...SNOW...AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION TNT
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TO MAINTAIN
LOWER END POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING.

MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ARE EXPECTED.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION.

925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S MONDAY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEENS AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 8 TO 13 ABOVE ZERO RANGE. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS...WHICH WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVING EAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
ON MONDAY. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH ON
MONDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TO MAINTAIN
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP THE REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500
MB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION COLD
DURING THIS TIME.

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLIPPING OR SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS MODEST DURING THIS
TIME...SO KEPT JUST LOW END POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME.

MODELS THEN DIFFER MORE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TRENDS...SO USED
CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE LIGHT SNOW STARTS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO FALL TO 1-2 KFT
WITH VSBYS OF 1-2 MILES WITH THE SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL END BY LATE EVENING BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
VSBYS DURING THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM 3-5SM BUT MAY RISE TO P6SM
BEFORE 12Z SUN. LOW STRATUS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD



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