Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 122110
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

Areas of mist are lingering in the southeast forecast area this
afternoon. This should wind down late afternoon into early evening
as the shortwave and deeper moisture depart.

Clearing skies have arrived in the northwest forecast area and
should slowly head southeastward over the next several hours.
Would not be surprised by a little fog in spots tonight with less
clouds, recent precip, and light winds.

Light winds, some sunshine, and somewhat milder temps should
result in a relatively pleasant day on Monday...at least compared
to the last couple days. Temperatures will still be a few degrees
below normal for mid-November.


Monday night Through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Weak upper ridging Monday night becomes zonal as a strong 125 knot
250 mb jet max approaches before a shortwave moves across the
lake superior region Tuesday night.

Models then are in agreement with bringing warm air and moisture
advection into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moderate
upper divergence and 700 mb upward motion Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This should bring a period of rain to the area.
Likely PoPs for late Tuesday night.

Cold air advection after the frontal passage should bring colder
temperatures back into the area later Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...

Wednesday Night Through Thursday night...Forecast Confidence is
High.

A weak mid/upper level ridge should bring brief quiet weather
Wednesday night into Thursday, with another high pressure system
moving across Wisconsin.

Friday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A low will intensify across the Upper Great Lakes during this
period.

Models continue to show mainly timing differences, with the GFS
the fastest and farthest north with the low track. The ECMWF is
the slowest and most south.

Warm air advection develops Thursday night and brings more
moisture into the region. Little if any precipitation is on the
slower ECMWF, with mainly rain developing late on the faster GFS.

It will be windy, with wind advisories possible and Gales likely.
Timing is the main issue.

For now, will continue with the blended model PoPs and
temperatures for Thursday night into Saturday. The snow chance is
greatest on the slower ECMWF in the deformation zone on the back
end of the low Saturday.

By Sunday all models have a surface high across the Upper
Mississippi River region.

&&


.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Mist across the southeast forecast area is currently reducing
visibilities to 2-5 miles in many areas. MVFR ceilings are
hanging around as well. The visibility should improve late
afternoon into early evening as the mist departs. Also, expect
ceilings to return to VFR into the evening as clouds scatter out
from northwest to southeast.

Could see a little fog in spots tonight, but nothing widespread is
expected.

It looks quiet Monday, with light winds and increasing high
clouds.


&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible later Tuesday through
Wednesday. A strong low pressure system may then bring gale force
winds and high waves late week into the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday Night through Sunday...Hentz



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