Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 230809
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
309 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.TODAY...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will bring another day very similar to Sunday. Winds
will be turning southerly as the ridge slides east, this will allow
somewhat higher dewpoints to get into the area...feeling a bit more
humid. Plus, the cooler Lake Michigan air will be limited to areas
much closer to the shore. Look for sunny skies with highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s.

.TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

The main challenge is how far east any convection will get into
southern Wisconsin. The upper flow will become southwest as the
upper ridge breaks down and slides ESE with time. A weak mid level
wave will be moving in late tonight. Convection will fire along a
surface cold front over MN/IA today, then work east with the
progressive front and moisture axis. The brisk low level jet
upstream helping to support the convection will break down
overnight, so support will wane. But, there should be enough
momentum and support from that weak mid level wave to bring some
scattered convection to at least the western forecast area after
midnight.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A weak shortwave and associated frontal boundary is expected to
drop through the forecast area on Tuesday. This will probably kick
off scattered showers and storms, so kept high end chance pops
going. Did not go as warm as 925 mb temps would suggest at the
surface given clouds and precip chances, but still looks like a
mild day.

After the front sags southward it should turn dry for much of
Tuesday night. The front is expected to begin a return northward
later Tuesday night through Wednesday night though, so
precipitation chances will pick back up during this period.

It will likely be cooler most places Wednesday (except may the
southwest) with the front slowly making progress back into the
area. Coolest temps will be near Lake Michigan under east winds.
Would not be surprised at some fog later Tue night into Wed given
the onshore winds and higher dewpoints over the cooler water.
NAM/GFS soundings support the fog potential.

Still think a few strong to severe storms not out of the question
Tue/Wed...though hard to pin down timing of best chance at this
moment. SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe storms both days.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A surge of warm advection is expected to bring more shower/storm
chances on Thursday, as low pressure to the northwest lifts
through the region.

Another low west of the state will lift northward through the area
Friday and Saturday, with persistent moist and unstable conditions
bringing continued shower/storm chances to southern Wisconsin.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue late in the week
and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. there is
a chance of showers and storms at KMSN after about 09z Tue and at
KMKE/KUES/KENW, after 12z Tue as a trough of low pressure approaches
the area. Brief MVFR conditions could accompany any rain that moves
in. Winds will become southerly across the area after sunrise this
morning, turning more southeast close to Lake Michigan.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will turn southeast today as high pressure slides off to the
east.  Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through the week.  As a more humid airmass
approaches the area by Tuesday, we could see areas of fog out over
the cool Lake Michigan waters from time to time this week.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV



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