Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 152334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Large midlevel cloud deck continues to blanket most of Southeast
Texas, leaving LBX on the fringe and GLS the lone site completely
in the clear. Winds have been more easterly than the expected
southeasterly and very light to calm, perhaps because of a subtle
surface trough. Do expect bases to lower overnight and eventually
drop to MVFR late. This poses the question on fog potential with
low clouds in place. Think there is enough low level moisture and
light winds, combined with the clouds today keeping temperatures a
little more in check, that fog may still emerge. That said, of the
sites under the deck, only take CXO to IFR visibility and hold the
rest at MVFR. Do go much more aggressive with fog at LBX under
more clear skies.

Tomorrow, delay improvement to VFR more than guidance, but think
that by mid-afternoon ceilings should be above the MVFR threshold
across the area. Perhaps am optimistic in going SCT with those
afternoon clouds, and a repeat of today is not out of the



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

Thickening cloud cover situated south of weak mid-level troughing
and downstream of a west central Texas stationary surface boundary.
There may be just enough moisture overrunning this far northern
frontal zone to produce either drizzle of brief periods of light
rain through the early Thursday morning hours. Other than these
slight northern third CWA light precipitation chances...the return
for fog may be in the works for those inland areas that (partially)
clear out late this evening. Since there will not be much change
in the overall synoptic pattern of westerlies atop lower level
southeasterlies...and overnight winds falling to under 5 mph may
provide the suitable enough environment for (re)developing areas
of fog...locally dense just before sunrise. FWIW...the SREF model
pings a high probability (greater than 50%) for areas of (dense)
fog over the majority of our counties including the metro area.
The only fly-in-the-ointment for fog inhibition would be today`s
cloud cover hanging tough and developing into a low stratus deck.
Either way...probs lean to an overcast overnight with lower to
middle 60 F minimum temperatures.

Thursday weather will be very similar to today`s partially/mostly
cloudy and unseasonably warm/humid conditions. Most of the day
will be spent in the 70s with mid afternoon temperatures nearing
the lower 80s once again. Texas falls on the eastern side of the
southern-based 5H ridging (westerly flow aloft) and...with high
pressure moving across the Ohio River Valley tomorrow maintaining
near 1.2 inch regional pwats/relatively higher moisture on entrenched
onshore winds...expect plenty of clouds at all heights through
late Friday. The only noticeable day-to-day difference be with the
gradual strengthening of these southerlies through Friday ahead
of the next cold front.

Saturday`s cold front is now timed to pass across the region from
early Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening...moderate to
strong offshore winds in its wake (see Marine for the greatest
impacts). Unfortunately...due to stout downstream mid-level
warming ahead of the front...the area will not experience much
rainfall. Primarily eastern CWA-focused light showers with a
possible isolated near-coastal/maritime thunderstorm Saturday
during the day along or ahead of the main front itself. The good
news is that this front will usher in a cool and dry air mass
that will drive daily temperatures down into the 40s and 50s with
early Thanksgiving week 60 degree afternoon temperatures. Offshore
flow veers around to onshore by mid-late Monday which means a
return to warmth and higher moisture heading into Turkey Day. The
counter to this will be a system that may come through in the
Wednesday timeframe. This may introduce rain chances and regulate
warmth to the overnight 50s and afternoon 60s on what appears to
be a partially cloudy day under northeast breezes. 31

Light east to southeast winds will continue through Thursday
night. Increasing winds and seas can be expected Friday through
early Saturday with the approach of the next storm system and
associated cold front. This front will push off the coast late
Saturday with a strengthening offshore flow and increasing seas
in its wake. Small craft advisory conditions can be expected
through Sunday. Weakening winds and decreasing seas are
anticipated at the start of next week.  42


College Station (CLL)      64  79  65  82  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)              61  79  64  81  68 /  10  20  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            68  75  69  77  70 /  10  10  10  10  10




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