Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 170425

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1125 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

MVFR cigs expected to develop late tonight over mainly the N-NW
TAF sites with generally VFR conditions expected closer to the
coast. Winds will not fully decouple overnight and breezy
conditions will be possible on Saturday. VFR conditions are
expected for Saturday afternoon and evening. 43


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

Only minor updates made based on hourly observations as current
forecast is on track. Expect overnight lows to fall into the mid
70s to low 80s with increasing cloud cover overnight and southerly
winds 5 to 15 MPH.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

Southeast Texas will remain in the eastern periphery of the mid/upper
ridge over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States for
the next week or so.

Rain chances will remain slim/none thru the weekend as 850 mb temps
nudge up another degree or two to 21-24C and 700mb temps to
12-14C. After some patchy early morning cloudiness, plentiful sun
should allow surface temps to climb into the mid-upper 90s with
heat indices topping out between 104-106F.

The disturbance currently seen on w/v imagery over nrn MS appears
that`ll make swd progress tonight and Saturday, retrograde some
and become caught up in the flow around the western ridge later in
the weekend -- basically carving out a weakness/inverted trof from
the Bay of Campeche into the west central Gulf. The area of
disturbed weather currently over the western Caribbean should make
its way into the southern Gulf early next week and will be worth
monitoring for possible tropical development. There`s still
various model solutions out there, generally in a couple different
camps. But until if/when something becomes better organized,
forecast confidence will be on the lower end. 47

Onshore flow across the waters this afternoon with the occasional
gust over the bays and near shore waters will result in sustained
winds ranging between 5 to 15 knots and sporadic gusts between 15 to
20 knots. Therefore, during the overnight hours there may be brief
periods of wind speeds reaching exercise caution criteria. Wave
heights should remain between 3-5 feet throughout the weekend.

There is a high level of uncertainty in the winds during the
extended period, associated with a possible tropical system which
could develop near the Yucatan Peninsula. Begin to see sea heights
lower late Sunday into Monday to around 2 to 4 feet. Southerly winds
are expected to continue until a weak boundary begins to move
through late Sunday into Monday. As of now, winds should become more
easterly behind this boundary, and eventually become more
northeasterly by Tuesday. Return flow should prevail by next



College Station (CLL)      76  97  77  96  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              77  96  78  95  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  89  82  90  81 /   0   0   0  10  10


     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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