Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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945
FXUS64 KHGX 151732
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1132 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR this afternoon for most of the TAF sites. Another round of VLIFR/IFR
possible with a mix of CIGS and VISBY late tonight through early tomorrow
morning. CLL-UTS locations could see -RA/-DZ toward morning while the
rest of the area should stay dry. After morning fog lifts, MVFR ceiling
could linger around for a little longer into the late morning or early
afternoon hours. We`ll probably repeating this pattern until a cold
front moves through the area during the day on Saturday.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

UPDATE...
Cumulus field beginning to take shape across the western 2/3rds
of the forecast area with regional temperatures already achieving
the middle 70s late this morning. Another partly cloudy day with
maximum temperatures falling a degree or two on either side of 80 F.
Thicker cloud cover over the far northern CWA may keep them on
the cooler side of 80. A weak stationary boundary over west central
Texas will nudge eastward and near our far northern reaches later
today and tonight. This may produce northern drizzle or brief
periods of light rain. A near zonal flow pattern providing mid to
upper level WNW winds atop lower level southeasterlies should
maintain various cloud levels. This persistent light onshore flow
through tomorrow will offer little to no change in regional diurnal
temperature/moisture behavior. This unwavering pattern should keep
the probabilities high for another round of early Thursday morning
inland stratus or fog redevelopment. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A froggy morning expected for much of SE TX today (and likely tomorrow)
given the clear skies/light winds and increased low-level moisture.
A Dense Fog Advisory is possible shortly on through the mid-morning
hours when conditions will be improving. Another mild and dry afternoon
is forecast with max temperatures continuing to run slightly above
seasonal norms. A weak upper level disturbance approaching from
the NW could produce some very isolated/light RA late this afternoon
/tonight across our northern counties...but no significant accumulations
are expected given the very dry airmass over the region. Otherwise,
this pattern of cloudy/foggy mornings and dry/warm(ing) afternoons
should continue the next few days.

Our next best rain chances are still progged for Sat with the passage
of a strong cold front. Model consensus a bit better with regard
to timing, which are pointing at the front being right along the
coast late Sat afternoon. The majority of the POPS will be at and
along the front, where lift will be best. The slightly capped
airmass (progged to be in place) could support some isolated TSRA.

Much cooler/drier weather expected in the wake of the front, with
perhaps some Fire Weather issues on Sun (see below). The extended
forecast (into the holiday week) is shaping up to be a rather disparate
one. Not seeing a lot (if any) consensus with this pattern as the
00Z ECMWF is trending much much wetter/active than the 00Z GFS.
As such, will opt to lean a bit more with the ECMWF with the long-range
forecast as it has been verifying a bit better of late. 41

MARINE...
Relatively light winds on tap for a few days as high pressure over
Louisiana moves eastward and weak front sags southward into the
state tonight/Thursday. Strengthened onshore winds Friday on tap and
will probably reach SCEC conditions as winds and seas build...south
winds gradually veer to the southwest by afternoon. A cold front
pushes off the coast Saturday late afternoon and moderate offshore
ensues. SCEC and probably SCA conditions will follow with rough
waters thanks to the persistent southerly flow Friday and building
southerly swell banging against the offshore strengthening wind
waves. Model forecasts for Tue-Thu look like a roulette wheel for
outcomes. Strong offshore flow possible to light-moderate
easterly...very unsettled to say the least and confidence is very
low after Monday. 45

FIRE WEATHER...
Overnight and early morning with excellent recovery conditions will
prevail the next few mornings. Friday will have gusty south to
southwest winds 10-20 mph with well above normal temperatures by 7-
10 degrees. A cold front swings through Saturday which could bring
spotty showers or even an isolated thunderstorm. Northwest to north
winds in the wake of the front will follow and should increase to 10
to 20 mph. Sunday a surge of drier air will be pushing south and if
skies remain clear and temperatures reach the projections of mid to
upper 60s then RH values will drop into the 21-27 percent range with
northerly winds of near 10 mph possibly stronger during the morning
and early afternoon hours. Fuel moistures should continue to dry out
though early this month ERC values were near normal for this time of
year.  Given the weather and fuel moisture elevated fire weather
conditions may be possible. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      80  64  79  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              80  61  79  64  81 /  10  10  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            74  68  75  69  76 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

31/42



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