Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 231735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 1039 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The high pressure ridge that has been over the region this weekend
is slowly making its way to the east. Winds have become more
southerly and another warm day is expected. Some cirrus clouds
across the region will do very little to tamper with the warm up.
Forecast is on track and no major updates are anticipated.


.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A high pressure ridge in the mid levels today will continue to bring
clear skies. With high pressure at the surface now centered over the
eastern Ohio River Valley region, southeasterly to southerly winds
will develop to around 6-12 mph by afternoon, along with occasional
gusts 10-20 mph. The stronger winds will be toward western IL. With
moisture still relatively dry today (dewpoints near 50), highs
reaching the low to mid 80s will continue to feel relatively mild.
The warmer mid 80s will be generally west of I-57 where stronger
southerly flow advects warmer air from the south into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Upper level pattern has begun its transition to a flow more out of
the southwest, as the ridge overhead breaks down through the day.
This will lead to a more humid air mass moving in beginning on
Tuesday. With a frontal boundary becoming nearly stationary not too
far to the north, periods of showers and thunderstorms will occur
most of the week, although tonight should be largely dry except late
in the far west.

Main concern will be the potential for any strong to severe
thunderstorms through the period. While CAPE values increase
nicely across the western CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, 0-6km bulk
shear values are expected to only be around 25-30 knots,
suggesting more of an environment conducive to pulse-type
strong/severe storms. There is also some uncertainty as to the
influence on any previous convection in terms of boundaries or
ability to clear out enough to help destabilize the atmosphere.
Some indications also are seen on the ECMWF of one or more MCS
systems late in the week, especially Thursday night with the
stationary front much closer to us.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR through the short range at least. Some cirrus moving through
the region keeping the skies from being clear...but warm southerly
winds...with occasional gusts, particularly in the west. Trouble
approaching tonight after midnight...closer to 09z with the
approach of possible precip from the system to the SW. Keeping it
to VCTS and VCSH as activity could initially be more scattered in


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.