Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 030200
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
900 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OVERNIGHT FROM DECAYING UPSTREAM
CONVECTION, BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS ARE NEEDED FOR THE LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE LITTLE AMOUNT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OUT THERE SHOULD ERODE AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.  UPPER LOW IS STILL JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LLVL
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ALONG AND SE OF I-70 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE DAY HAS PROGRESSED, SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO
SHOW SOME MIXING OUT.  WATCHING HOW MUCH THE DWPTS IN THE SOUTHEAST
GET TO DROP WILL DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT PATCHY FOG NEEDS TO BE
ADDED...BUT AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS LIMITED.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN AROUND AND JUST AFTER
DAWN.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. UNTIL THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS CENTRAL IL WILL SEE CONTINUED
WARMING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY IF NOT
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE MIDWEST REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...MODELS ALREADY START TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR
EASTWARD CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREAD. GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF A SYSTEM THURSDAY AS IT
PROPAGATES INTO CENTRAL IL AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE OR
DRY CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MAINTAINS PRECIPITATION BETTER AS IT PROPAGATES INTO ILLINOIS
SO POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER CANADA...DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY OR MONDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING
THE COOLER AIR MASS LARGELY TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISAGREE ON TIMING
AND WAVE AMPLITUDE WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. CURRENT FORECAST THEREFORE
FEATURES LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF VALID TIME. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...BAK


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