Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 282129
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A low pressure system currently centered over western Iowa will
track eastward across northern Illinois from around midnight to 6
a.m. tonight. As it does so, a warm frontal boundary followed by a
cold front will push across central Illinois in quick succession.
The warm front will cause temperatures to remain steady or even rise
slightly through much of the night, with primarily upper 30s and
lower 40s expected, followed by little increase in temperatures
after sunrise as the cold front pushes east across the area. This
system will be relatively moisture starved, so precipitation amounts
are expected to be very light. A potent surface pressure gradient
will be present with this system, keeping breezy winds going through
the night in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 mph with some higher
gusts. Winds will gradually turn from SSE this afternoon to SSW
overnight, shifting abruptly to northwest after the cold frontal
passage.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Main concern today is the system over the weekend.
Morning upper air shows weak wave to move through tonight. Then
continued general northwest flow aloft as a cutoff low in the
southwest begins to drift to the east. A piece of shortwave energy
comes out from the southwest on Saturday and develops overrunning
pcpn Saturday night, as another wave in the northwest flow tracks to
the southeast into the area for Sunday. The result is a prolonged
period of light lift over the area Saturday night into Sunday
evening, which will produce light pcpn. Temperatures will be cold
enough for all over cwa but the far southeast to result in all snow
most of the period. At this time, lift seems to be light and just
the prolonged period from the 2 systems causing the pcpn. Will still
have to watch it as periods near to see if lift increases and thus
the resultant amounts. Kept amounts similar in the grids as previous
run at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions with S-SE winds 15-20 kts and gusts to around 30
kts expected until around 02Z. Slight decrease in winds through
the evening will bring wind shear near but slightly below
mentionable thresholds as 40 kt winds expected around 2000 AGL by
02Z. After 06Z...winds begin to veer toward NW as MVFR ceilings
and areas of light rain move in from the west. Expecting primarily
VFR visibilities due to precipitation type remaining rain and
continued breezy winds. Best chances for precipitation and lower
ceilings will be toward the north and east of central Illinois.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Onton





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