Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 160812
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
212 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Quiet weather is expected during the short term. Still have some
gusty winds over 20 mph early this morning, but these will
diminish later this morning as the strong surface low moves east
into Quebec. High pressure drifting east through the Midwest will
keep conditions dry in our area. By tonight, a southeast flow will
start to set up behind the low, and that will keep temperatures
fairly steady through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Evening model suite in good agreement that the incoming cold front
will pass through the forecast area Saturday morning. Initial
effects will be with scattered showers during the day on Friday,
but bulk of the rain remains Friday night into at least the first
half of Saturday. Severe weather threat still looks rather low,
but we should still see at least scattered thunderstorms. GFS
shows about 500 J/kg of CAPE Friday night into early Saturday.

Given the strength of the overall system, rather windy conditions
are expected on the back side of the storm on Saturday. Some gusts
30-35 mph are likely. Temperatures will be falling through the
day, as strong cold air advection takes place.

A few days of quiet weather is expected into the first part of the
new week, as the main storm track will be across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

MVFR cigs and gusty NW winds around 15 kts gusting up to 25 kts
over the next few hours will be the main feature for central IL
TAFS through the next 24 hours. This feature should mainly affect
KPIA-KBMI-KCMI northward, although somewhat gusty winds will
extend farther south to KSPI-KDEC. Otherwise, NW winds will
gradually decrease after 09z, generally under 12 kts. Late
afternoon Thursday may see winds become light and variable as a
high pressure ridge axis moves over the area, followed by winds
switching to E-SE tomorrow evening.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...37



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