Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 090553

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Current forecast still looks ok based on quick look at new
forecast models and current radar/satellite/observations. Only
adjustment made will be to pops/wx grids to include mention of
flurries in southwest and south overnight. Not much precip seen on
radar but should increase a little bit during the overnight
hours. Update will be out shortly.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Ample sunshine and sw breezes helped boost temperatures into the
low to mid 30s by mid afternoon. High pressure over the mid MS and
Ohio river valleys, that provided a fair amount of sunshine to
central IL today, will give way to a clipper low pressure system
over western Ontario and ne MN that dives into central IL by
sunrise Sat and into IN by noon Sat. Latest forecast models
continue to trend slower with arrival of light snow from this
feature, pushing se over central and ne IL during overnight, and
lingering in eastern IL mainly east of I-57 Sat morning. Snowfall
amounts still appear quite light, around a half inch from I-74 ne
with up to 1 inch ne Vermilion county around Hoopeston. Just some
flurries from Springfield sw later tonight into early Sat morning.
Light snow will diminish over eastern IL during late Saturday
morning with CWA dry by noon Sat. Lows tonight in the low to mid
20s. Highs Saturday mostly in the lower 30s, with some upper 20s
ne of I-74 where a light snow cover possible. Brisk nw winds
gusting 20-30 mph will make it feel colder on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A deep upper level trof will persist over the Great Lakes region
and eastern states much of next week, with a few more clipper
systems tracking se and bringing periodic chances of light
precipitation. Though most of the time it should be dry and
temps will stay on the cool side over central and southeast IL.

Another cold night expected Sat night with lows 15-20F as clouds
and winds diminish. The next clipper system takes a further ne
track across the central great lakes during Sunday keeping its
light snow well ne of central IL. Partly to mostly sunny skies
expected Sunday with milder highs in the mid to upper 30s over
east central IL and lower 40s sw of I-74, with mid 40s from
Jacksonville sw.

A 3rd clipper moves se into central Lake MI by sunset Monday,
while our CWA continues to stay dry Sunday night and Monday.
West to SW breezes ahead of that clipper on Monday will moderate
temps into the lower 40s from I-74 ne and upper 40s sw CWA and
likely be the mildest day of next week. Have a slight chances of
light snow showers Monday night ne of I-74 as tail end of clipper
system passes by. Most of our area should remain dry Monday
night. Colder air to arrive behind this clipper on Monday night
and Tue. Lows Monday night of 19-25F with highs Tue upper 20s ne
half and lower 30s sw half of CWA. Dry and chilly wx expected Tue
through Wed as another clipper dives into the western Great Lakes
Wed. Have isolated light snow showers or flurries possible Wed
evening then isolated light mixed pcpn chances Thu and Friday
mainly in the afternoon hours. Highs Wed in the mid to upper 30s,
with some lower 30s ne of I-74. Highs Thu and Fri edge up into
the upper 30s and lower 40s, and mildest sw CWA which is close to
normal for mid Dec.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Decided that VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs.
Trough is still forecast to move into the area overnight and bring
possible flurries/light snow to a some of the sites. Have backed
off on much MVFR cigs, except for PIA/BMI/CMI in the morning given
the lack of MVFR clouds in obs upstream. Cigs will drop overnight
with flurries or light snow but cigs will drop little further
after the snow in the morning. By afternoon, conditions will
improve and skies should become clear afternoon with clear skies
into the evening. Winds will be southwest before the trough and
then become west and then northwest behind the trough with some
gusts over 20kts.




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