Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 262000
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Lingering precipitation has shifted to our southeast early this
afternoon, and skies west of I-55 have been mostly sunny. The areas
east of I-55 have been a little slower to clear out, though. Upper
level trough rather prominent on water vapor satellite imagery this
afternoon, generally marking the back edge of the cloud line.
Another fast moving shortwave is dropping southward across northern
Minnesota, and this will be moving into northern Illinois overnight.
No precipitation is expected our area from this feature, but this
will help to keep some of the stratocumulus deck to our north from
scattering out quite as fast before it arrives. Thus, overnight
forecast will generally be partly cloudy across the area. Little
change made to the temperatures, with mid to upper 20s across the
entire CWA.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Morning upper air and moisture satellite loop shows digging upper
trough over upper MS valley with shortwave moving east over IL
region. Strong upper jet southeastward plunging over MT. 850mb cold
air advection into area after the cold front that has moved east of
region, with pcpn cleared area.

Models consistant in maintaining northwest upper level flow and
resulting cool conditions due to cold high pressure into Saturday.
Upper flow then flattens some and surface return flow late Saturday
into Sunday that begins warming.

Shortwave in the northwest flow progged to move from northern plains
through IL Sunday.  Appears to be enough southerly flow ahead of
wave for moisture and with lift and some moisture coming with
system, will have chance pops over most of CWA, but heaviest pcpn
onver northern 1/3 of state. Timing is still an issue, as GFS is
much faster than the new EUR model. Pcpn moves off overnight, with
only a week high ridge moving in. Another week low moves north of
the region through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, and then a final
system approaches Wednesday. Again the models are in disagreement on
track with the EUR more aggressive with pops. Just went with chance
pops for that period til more agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Initial concern will be with some brief MVFR periods around KCMI
and possibly KDEC early this afternoon. Have seen some ceilings
around 2000 feet at nearby airports since about 16Z at times, but
general trend will be for the lower clouds there to diminish with
time. Some clouds around 2500 feet are also developing over north
central Illinois as a trough of cold air moves into the area, and
these may reach down to KBMI. As an upper wave swings southeast
through the Great Lakes tonight, a more solid deck of
stratocumulus clouds will likely drop southward across northern
Illinois, with some enhancement from Lake Michigan possible. Have
added some MVFR ceilings for KCMI late tonight and Friday morning,
and kept them in low VFR range at KBMI. Further west, cloudiness
should largely be in the middle levels of the atmosphere. Gusty
winds this afternoon will diminish as sunset approaches, but some
winds over 10 knots likely again by late Friday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Geelhart





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