Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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990
FXUS63 KILX 181705
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

HAVE REDUCED HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY FRONT
IS APROACHING I-55 WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THEN FORECAST PACKAGE
EXPECTED. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WIND GRIDS TO
INDICATE FROPA AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF
ILLINOIS RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY. A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
IL/IA BORDER, WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY TIED TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THIS AREA IS STILL WITHIN OR CLOSE TO A RICHER MOISTURE
AXIS AS CAN BE SEEN BY THE CURRENT CONVECTION ON REGIONAL RADAR
LOOPS. SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL ALSO HAVE THE MOST TIME TO DIURNALLY
DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. STILL, MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A
DRY DAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A BIGGER RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR NW COUNTIES (WHERE FRONT
ARRIVES THE SOONEST) TO THE LOWER 80S IN SE IL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE WABASH RIVER AROUND SUNSET AND
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING IN FAR SE IL NEAR THE WABASH RIVER. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AND NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MIDWEST. LOWS
TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE
LOWER 50S SE OF I-70. HIGH PRESSURE NW OF IL ON TUE WILL CONTINUE
NW WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-72...MID
60S CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. COOL LOW IN THE LOWER 40S NE OF I-74...MID 40S
CENTRAL PART OF CWA AND UPPER 40S SW AREAS.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM UPPER
LEVEL TROF NEAR CA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED AND SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL DURING THE DAY WED.
HAVE LIKELY POPS SW AREAS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WED AFTERNOON.
SHOWER CHANCES SHIFT SE DURING WED NIGHT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST IL AND SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
THU WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH HIGHEST WED DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NW OF THE IL RIVER AND LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST IL. CLOUDS DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THU WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND MILDER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO IL DURING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED AND EJECTING SHORT WAVES NE
TOWARD IL AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OFF GULF OF MEXICO
BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST CENTRAL IL SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST AREAS LOOK
DRY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE 72-77. HAVE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IL RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE 20-30% CHANCE
IN SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THEN LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S SUN/MON WITH
SOUTHERN AREAS GETTING NEAR 80F ON SUNDAY AND MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES TODAY WITH
PASSAGE AT KSPI AND KBMI PRIOR TO 17Z. WIND SHIFT FROM 230 TO 290
OCCURING WITH THE FRONT. BAND OF CIGS 15-25 PARALLELING SURFACE
FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING I-55 EASTWARD. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING
LINE WINDS BECOME GUSTY WINDS OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK OVER MUCH NORTHWESTERN HALF OF IOWA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINALS AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST WITH THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. SKC WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH 19/18Z.

NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO REDUCE RISK OF ANY
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARKER
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BARKER



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