Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 232114

Area Forecast Discussion
314 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)

Deepening 993 mb low pressure between Oklahoma City and Tulsa at mid
afternoon will strengthen further as it ejects northeast across
central IL near or east of I-55 during this evening, and into
northern lower MI overnight at it deepens to 979 mb. Widespread
light to moderate rain showers have spread NNE across central/se IL
early this afternoon. Still no reports of thunder over IL but will
continue to carry isolated thunderstorms over eastern IL into this
evening as deepening low pressure approaches.

Showers will break up later this evening and overnight east of the
IL river while deformation zone of precipitation lingers west of the
IL river. Strong cold front sweeps across central and eastern IL
during overnight, passing through the Wabash river valley early
Monday morning. Light rain to mix with light snow nw of the IL river
late tonight and change to snow early Monday morning as temps fall
into the mid 30s. Temperatures currently in the low to mid 50s and
dewpoints are in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows tonight to range
from mid 30s from Peoria and Springfield west, to the mid to upper
40s near the IN/IL border with temps continue to drop Monday
morning. Southeast winds 10-17 mph and gusts of 18-25 mph this
afternoon to subside this evening to around 10 mph or less as low
pressure moves in. But as low deepens and pulls away from central/se
IL overnight, winds will turn westerly behind the cold front and
increase to 15-25 mph and gust 25 to 30 mph later tonight. RUC model
shows even higher wind gusts of 35-40 mph going into southeast IL
behind cold front early Monday morning around sunrise. MET/MAV
guidance shows strongest winds during the day Monday (strongest in
eastern IL) after 15Z/9 am Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)

The strong low pressure area will continue to lift northeast through
the Great Lakes area with a very strong pressure gradient behind the
system. In addition, gusty westerly winds and strong cold air
advection (CAA) will move into the area Monday. Expecting rain in
the eastern half of the CWA and a mix of rain and snow in the
western half,in the morning. Then as the CAA occurs, the all snow
line will move across the area from west to east, so that by early
afternoon, most of the CWA will be all snow, with the mix of rain
and snow only in the eastern parts of the CWA. By late afternoon,
the whole area will be cold enough for snow. As the system lifts
northeast through the day, the higher chances of pcpn will move from
southwest to northeast. So, the areas mostly likely to see any
accumulation of snow will be Northwest of I-55 during the morning and
then north of a Galesburg to Bloomington line during the afternoon.
Total snowfall accumulation expected tomorrow will be an inch or
more northwest of a Macomb to Pontiac line; and then lesser amounts
southeast of that line. Highest amounts are expected to be 1.5 to 2
inches north of a Galesburg to Lacon line.

The tight gradient behind this system will also bring very gusty
winds to the CWA tomorrow, beginning tomorrow morning and lasting
through the day. Sustained winds or around 25 mph with gusts between
35 and 40 mph will be possible across the whole area tomorrow. Will
not be issuing a wind advisory as it will be just below criteria.
However, would not be surprised if overnight shift issues one in the
morning. The gusty winds will also create blowing snow, mainly in
the northern parts of the CWA, so visibilities could be reduced at

Pcpn will end by tomorrow night as the low pressure area lifts
northeast into Canada. After this system, dry weather is expected
for Monday night through Tue night as brief high pressure area moves
through the CWA. Then another clipper system is expected to move
through the area and bring another chance of rain and/or snow for
Wednesday. There will be some warm air ahead of this system so the
pcpn type could be a mix before it changes to all snow. Any
accumulations with this system will be confined to the north with a
half inch or less this time. The remainder of the
forecast should be dry with temps below normal, as Canadian high
pressure moves in and dominates the weather through the rest of the
week and into the weekend.

Temps will steady or slowly falling tomorrow due to the strong CAA
expected. Then temps will be cool/cold most of the rest of the
forecast, except for Wed, just ahead of the next clipper system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

MVFR ceilings of 1-2k ft have developed over central IL airports late
this morning and expect ceilings to lower to IFR during the
afternoon and tonight. VFR visibilities at midday lower to 2-4
miles during mid and late afternoon and continue tonight as rain
showers become more widespread and heavier. Currently no
thunderstorms over IL and nearby states, but isolated
thunderstorms still expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, though coverage too limited to pin point donw in the
TAFS. Rain showers to mix with or change to light snow from west
to east during Monday morning with vsbys as low as 1-2 miles at
PIA and BMI, while 2-4 miles vsbys further south along I-72. SSE
winds 12-17 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish
closer to 10 kts this evening and then veer sw by overnight and
WSW later tonight into Monday morning and increase to 17-22 kts
and gusts 25-30 kts by 15Z/9 am Monday.

Deepening 994 mb low pressure just north of Oklahoma City in
central OK at midday to turn northeast and track into central IL
this evening as it deepens to 987 mb. Low pressure then tracks
into western lower MI late tonight as it deepens further to 980 mb
and pulls a strong cold front east across central IL between 08Z-
12Z. Very tight pressure gradient behing cold front to bring the
strong WSW winds by Monday morning along with the colder air
changing the light rain to light snow and more widespread over
northern airports of PIA and BMI.




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