Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 152039
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
239 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

High pressure will continue to dominate Central Illinois and much of
the Midwest through the overnight hours. Very little in the way of
cloud cover, and light variable winds under the ridge axis...will
set up efficient radiational cooling.  Min temps overnight will drop
into the 20s for most of the state. Overnight, the ridge slips
eastward and winds become more southerly...picking up as the day
goes on...setting up for a warm advection trend in the
forecast...beginning with tomorrows highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s...well above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Morning upper air and moisture channel imagery shows main upper
trough from eastern Great Lakes into KY/TN. Northwest flow aloft
expected to continue until Friday, when upper ridge moves into
region. With the slowly changing upper flow, the result will be
surface high moving off to the east, and the start of long period of
southerly warm advection, that will continue into the weekend. The
warming into the weekend will push highs well into the 60s in the
weekend.

Models are similar in movement of significant shortwave through the
southwest US Sunday to Monday, with moisture advection northward
into the midwest ahead of the system. Another shrtwave in the
northern stream moves across the northern plains toward the Great
Lakes by Tuesday morning, will drag cold front into IL, prodcuing
chance of rain Monday night through Tuesday and into early
Wednesday. Dynamics aloft at this time do not look strong, but with
moist air, chance POPS for the rain will be the rule over the
reigon. Will have to watch this system to see how significant it
will be for pcpn amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

High pressure ridge axis drifting across the Midwest overnight
will result in some light and variable winds. Cirrus
dominates...with some mid level clouds possible after midnight to
the NE. Winds shift to more southerly on the other side of the
ridge. Quiet weather and VFR for now...but will be watching both
the crossover temps this afternoon as well as the wind fields. So
far, even light winds too high to promote any vis drops.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...HJS



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