Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 191551
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1051 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure across Central Illinois this morning with light
winds and mostly sunny skies. Few clouds on satellite imagery just
to the southwest around DEC even diminishing this morning. No
updates are anticipated in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to
the Southern Plains will provide mild and dry weather across central
Illinois today.  Skies will initially be clear early this morning,
then a few diurnal clouds will develop as the day progresses.  NAM
Cu-rule suggests the clouds may become most concentrated along/west
of the Illinois River...however overall sky cover will remain mostly
sunny.  Thanks to ample sunshine acting on the dry airmass,
afternoon high temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and lower
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Upper low currently evident on water vapor imagery along the coast
of British Columbia is still progged to dig southward across the
West Coast of the CONUS over the next few days, causing a persistent
piece of energy over the Desert Southwest to eject northeastward by
the end of the week.  Previous model runs had shown this feature
tracking across central Illinois during the Friday/Saturday time
frame, with a few runs of the ECMWF suggesting a slow-moving 500mb
closed low developing over Illinois.  00z May 19 models are now
showing a much more progressive open wave largely passing south of
Illinois.  Have therefore trimmed PoPs to feature chance of showers
mainly along/south of I-70 during the day Friday, then only across
the far southeast CWA into Friday evening.

Once the wave passes to the east, upper heights will begin to build
in response to upstream troughing over the West Coast/Rockies.  This
will allow a steady warming trend into early next week, with
temperatures rising well into the 70s by Sunday and perhaps pushing
80 degrees by Monday and Tuesday.  The next chance for rain will
hold off until Monday night into Tuesday as a short-wave ejects
eastward from the western trough and attempts to flatten the
prevailing ridge over the Midwest.  After that, it looks like warm
and occasionally showery weather will be on tap for the remainder of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

A surface ridge axis will remain stalled across Illinois from high
pressure centered to the NE over southern Lake Michigan. That will
set the stage for minimal cloud cover and light and variable
winds. Wind directions will change from east this morning to
SSE mid-day, then back SE by evening. Wind speed should remain
less than 10kt through 12z Friday.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon



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