Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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640
FXUS63 KMKX 042148
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE CROSSING SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 925-850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.

MEANWHILE... A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST WI EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
TRAILING A LITTLE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND THAT LAG WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS... PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING AS
THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. KEPT SMALL
POPS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND A LOT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THERE SHOULD BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND SIMILAR TO VALUES OBSERVED TODAY.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY
WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.

THE 850/700 MB LAYER IS SATURATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS STRONGER
WITH 700 MB UPWARD MOTION BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THE 700 MB IS SLOW TO SATURATE...BUT FINALLY
DOES SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
NAM.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THE GFS.

SNOWFALL GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE TOTALS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THESE ARE DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LAGGING SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF THE WAA AND WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING.

CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME FROM MID EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING WEST AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ



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