Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

000
FXUS63 KMKX 280847
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON BUT THE
BRISK WLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
MOVES INTO CANADA. SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NRN MN TO
LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY AND NELY INTO CANADA TNT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVER THE NRN
AND WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN SE WI. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY OVER CANADA...ITS TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH SRN WI EARLY WED AM. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WITH A SHIFT TO NWLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR BUT MODEL QPF AND
FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD NO PCPN. MOST MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCES YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 30S TNT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS WILL BEGIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE MIDWEST.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK LIFT
OVER SOUTHERN WI. THIS LIFT AND MEDIOCRE MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES... SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY
WEST OF MADISON.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI THU
NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
LATE THU NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXPECT BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY... THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. DESPITE THAT... 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S TUE NIGHT AND AROUND 30 THE
NEXT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

MODELS SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS.
GENERALLY... THE FORECAST WILL WARM DURING THIS PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN WI ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BRISK WLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEAKEN
SOME FOR TNT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT STRATOCUMULUS
SCT-BKN050 WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TNT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI NEWD INTO
CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK
WLY WINDS WHICH WILL VEER NWLY FOR WED AM. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE BY LATE WED AM AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.