Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 272027
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND
DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG SINCE WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD... IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... FOR THIS REASON AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SUBTLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR A LAKE BREEZE... SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE PROGS DO SHOW A RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW. IN ADDITION...850 LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED A BIT ON BRINGING ANY SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...SO WILL GO
DRY THROUGH 6Z...THEN SPREAD POPS ACROSS SRN WI WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD SETTING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACTING AS TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. IN ADDITION EXPECTING SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF JET TRAVERSING EASTERN SIDE OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. CWASP VALUES NOT OFF THE CHARTS SO ANY SVR
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO HINGE ON ANY BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN THE MORNING.
ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE BORDERLINE AS WELL. BETTER SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS PERIOD WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND MBE VELOCITIES UNDER 10 KNOTS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NAM/ECMWF/GEM KEEP POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN STORY WILL BE A MUCH MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER LAKE. SO THE
EAST WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES TO A RETURN FLOW.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TRENDS OF THE 00Z RUN IN KEEPING SRN WI
DRY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WARMING TEMPS. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED
OFF FROM 00Z ON BRINGING PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK
VORT SIGNALS WITHIN THE OVERALL 582DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE. ENERGY
FROM THE PLAINS DRAWS A BIT CLOSER WEDNESDAY BUT INFLUENCE OF
THAT STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CONCERNS FROM THAT PRETTY LOW.
BUT HAVE LEFT THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE TO MATCH UP WITH
KARX AND KGRB...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



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