Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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926
FXUS63 KMKX 050814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STILL BE SCRAPING THE LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP IT COOL NEAR THE LAKE TODAY...COMPARED TO
WELL INLAND. ON BALANCE...A NICE DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S BY THE LAKE TO MID 60S INLAND.

TONIGHT FEATURES THAT OL SNEAKY NORTHWEST FLOW WARM ADVECTION THAT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS LATER ON.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
GENERATING A LITTLE AREA OF LIGHT QPF OVER THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WE HAD SOME SMALL POPS IN ALREADY...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF
MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN
THE 20-22C RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
GOOD MIXING...RESULTING IN FORECAST HIGHS OF 80 TO 85 MOST PLACES.
WESTERLY WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY...SO COOLER TEMPS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE.
NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE...AS TEMPS WILL BE
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY...THOUGH STILL
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE SLIDING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BUT
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES TO ARRIVE A BIT SOONER EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO THEN BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-056.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



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