Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 211725
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Northwest winds will continue to be gusty into the evening, as
colder and much drier air builds into the area behind this
morning`s frontal passage. Temperatures will continue to fall this
afternoon, reaching the low 30s for most by late afternoon, on the
way to overnight lows tonight in the upper teens to around 20
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Gusty northwest winds will continue into this evening across the
area. Expect winds to peak this afternoon, with gusts between 25
and 30 KT at times. Winds will gradually decrease this evening,
becoming more westerly by Wednesday.

Flight conditions should remain VFR, with afternoon
stratus/stratocu clearing out by tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 857 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)

MARINE...

Small Craft conditions will continue into tonight. It`s possible
that an extension will be needed beyond 9 PM tonight.

A few wind gusts close to gales will be possible this morning and
early afternoon, but should stay rare enough to preclude Gale
Warning issuance. Conditions will continue to be monitored,
however.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 313 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

Strong low pressure will continue ewd across Ontario, Canada, then
newd across Quebec, Canada. A 100-120 kt nly jet will drive the
upper trough axis across srn WI this afternoon with the strong
cold frontal passage this morning. High temps will occur early
this morning then fall through the morning, but becoming steady
in the lower to middle 30s for the afternoon. Wind gusts to 30 mph
are expected. The broken stratocumulus behind the cold front over
MN should also develop sewd via the upper trough being driven swd
by the upper jet. The stratocumulus should then gradually decrease
from west to east during the afternoon but a few flurries could
occur. For tnt, the core of the polar high will track swd through
the Great Plains but its sfc ridge will extend nwd into the Upper
MS River Valley by 12z Wed. Thus expect winds to become lighter
through the night but not decouple. Lows in the upper teens to
lower 20s expected.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Some modification of low level thermal trough expected with winds
swinging around to more of a west or southwest direction. The
surface ridge axis starts off the day across IA/MN and then leans
more into the OH valley by days end. This will set the stage for
the return flow. not ready to jump on the wet NAM solution for
Wednesday night in this waa regime.

Thanksgiving - Confidence...Medium
A weak surface/850 trough passes through then the flow reloads
from the southwest as next low approaches from the northern
Plains. Looks like a steady period of modifying 925 temps right
into Thursday night.

Friday - Confidence...Medium
Thermal ridge amplifies ahead of the cold front. Should see many
temps reach the 50 degree mark with gusty southwest winds ahead
of the front. Could go even higher with ample sun, however cloud
cover and rain chances will be on the increase during the
afternoon/evening with the frontal boundary working through.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Looking at a colder but dry weekend as northwest winds usher in
the chilly airmass. Windiest day is shaping up to be Saturday. As
Sunday wears along the surface ridge axis is proggd to shift
right across the state so that will make for a much lighter wind
regime.

Monday - Confidence...Medium
The high will end up in the Ohio Valley with a renewed southerly
flow setting up yet another low taking shape in the Plains. So we
should see some modification to the weekend chill though the south
winds will be gusty and the warmest 925 temps hold off to the west
and southwest of WI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Boxell


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