Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271617
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1117 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...500 MILLIBAR CIRCULATION CENTERED IN NW IA
STILL SHOWING A RETROGRADING TENDENCY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF CIRRUS WRAPPING NNW INTO SRN WI. SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SREF VIS PROBS ARE SHOWING BETTER POTENTIAL ACRS NRN AND
WRN WI WHILE THE MAV/MET MOS VSBY PROGS ARE AT ODDS. WOULD NOT
EXPECT THE SITUATION TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO
OVERALL STAGNANT PATTERN/LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA LOCATED WITHIN THE LARGE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST U.S.  THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL RH CONTINUES TO
DECREASE...SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS ALONG WITH A FEW AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG.
ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
CAUSE THE FOG TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH A FEW AREAS DROPPING TO
BELOW 1/2 MILE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS BEST.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING
CONTINUED FANTASTIC WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE DROPPING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. JUST KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTH...AS MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP SLIDE THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AS THE WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WAVE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...THOUGH STILL NEAR
NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THESE DAYS...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH. SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WED AND THU...WITH COOL TEMPS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG.
ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
CAUSE THE FOG TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE A MOSTLY VFR PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH HAVING STRONG
INFLUENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. WATER VAPOR/RAP SHOWS RATHER
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST IOWA.  EXPECT MAINLY
CIRRUS ALONG WITH A FEW AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

MARINE...AREAS OF FOG AGAIN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV



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