Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BIG...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A LARGE STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ISN/T BEING HANDLED WELL BY MOST
OF THE MODELS...BUT SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

THERE ARE SIGNS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS QUICKLY EXPANDING THE
HOLE DEVELOPING OVER MN/NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST BY AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S AND MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 40S CLOSE TO THE LAKE.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES TONIGHT...THOUGH LIKELY
HOLDING AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. THERE IS SOME FROST
POTENTIAL...MOSTLY ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE RIDGE FROM WESTERN
RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES...NORTH TO FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES. BUT IT LOOKS PATCHY AT THIS POINT.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING IN QUICKLY JUST AS
TEMPS WILL BE REACHING THEIR MIN. SO THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL NOT POST A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS POINT DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH WITH LIGHT QPF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A RESULT OF A PASSING
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AS WELL AS 850 MB TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ARE QUITE DRY BELOW 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...WITH MORE DEEP MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHEST READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE MORE SUN SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND 60.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS WARM AS
WELL.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
NAM/ECMWF BRING LIGHT QPF TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT...BUT THINK DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
INLAND...WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

THESE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500
MB DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR
LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OR FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z TUESDAY.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN MOVES INTO OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOME VARIATION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT WITH
FEATURES...BUT LOOKS TO BE A WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDESTORMS POSSIBLE. CONTINUED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE STATUS DECK SHOULD SEE CIG LEVELS INCREASE TO VFR BETWEEN
12-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT BY
18Z...OR SOONER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD



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