Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER LSE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...MOVING IT ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OR SURFACE COLD FRONT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE... WHICH CONFIRMS
DRY PROFILES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
850 MB COLD POOL BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SE WI BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CURRENT STRATUS DECK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO NE MN AND THE
U.P. ALIGNS WELL WITH 925-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PCT OR
HIGHER...WHICH SPREADS INTO NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...THE 850 MB COLD POOL ALSO PRODUCES SOME
OMEGA WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A LITTLE CAPE
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN TO THE EAST OVER
THE LAKE WHERE FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMP DELTA T/S
MAKE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP BUT TRIM
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LOOKING AT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS AND NEAR
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS.

THE DELTA T VALUES DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND...MILDER ALONG THE LAKE.

AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BRINGING A POTENT 500 MB UPPER LOW
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE
SURFACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS MILD AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST TO CLEAR FAR SE
WI AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS TURN NW MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO DROP INTO THE
REGION...REACHING A KMSN TO KMKE LINE BY 16Z AND KENW BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD DECK TO
HOLD IN THE 3500 TO 4000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
AT KMSN AROUND 03Z...BUT REMAIN NO BETTER THAN BROKEN AT EASTERN
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD


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