Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 062035
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE WANING ON SEVERE AS CLOUD COVER AND CAP HAVE REALLY
PUT A DAMPER ON THE POTENTIAL. CIN RUNNING ABOUT 150 PLUS ACRS SRN
WI. WEAKNESS IN THE CAP WITH BETTER HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF WC WI AND EC MN. 500 MILLIBAR SPEED MAX
IS NOW HEADING MORE TO OUR SOUTH RATHER THAN AT US. AND OF COURSE
THE PRIMARY VORT MAX WITH BETTER OOMPH IS UP ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. WITH THE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO HOLD FIRM
EVERYTHING WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL ANY STORMS THAT FIRE IN THE
BETTER AIR AND IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SURVIVE
INTO OUR LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MESO MODELS DO SHOW STORMS
SURVIVING TOWARDS SRN WI WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. HAVE
TWEAKED POPS DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IN DECENT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY HAS LOWERED. ANY STORMS THAT AFFECT THE AREA ARE
PROGGD TO DEPART AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH FRONT SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF WI.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SWIFT AND BROADLY CYCLONIC. AIRMASS NOT AS
HUMID IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. SECONDARY SURFACE/850
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE NW CWA DURG THE AFTN SO BROUGHT SOME
SMALL POPS INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. 925 TEMPS STILL SUGGEST
PLENTY OF 80S WITH A WEST WIND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL USA
EARLY IN THE WEEK ON A 80 KNOT JET AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES MON NT-TUE WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM KS TO MO
TO IL. THIS PUTS SRN WI BETWEEN THE TWO FOCUSED AREAS OF LIFT BUT
BELIEVE THE NRN CWA WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS TO CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS
THERE FOR MON NT. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCES IN THE SRN CWA FOR MON
NT AS SOME PVA AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH COOL FROPA
APPROACHING.

LINGERED LOW POPS FOR TUE DUE TO UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR ALOFT. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUE NT
AND WED. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON WED AS POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING AWAY WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR WED
NT-THU NT. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST RESPECTIVELY WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
FOR FRI-SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUN. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH STRATUS HANGING
TOUGH. WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING UNTIL FRONT CLEARS LATER
ON IN THE NIGHT. STILL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS 00-04Z TIME FRAME AS
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT IS STILL A CATALYST. HOWEVER LOW CLOUD
COVER HAS PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WIDESPREAD SVR POTENTIAL. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP TAF SITES QUIET THEN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED BETTER MIXING OF HIGHER
WIND GUSTS...BUT STILL A FEW HERE AND THERE ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
SHEBOYGAN. IN SOME CASES WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
SCHEDULED END TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND TO BLEND WITH GRB/LOT AND THEIR SCA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING


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