Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 190224
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROF HAS SPREAD STRATUS QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRATUS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FOR KMKE AND SHOULD ENGULF REST
OF FAR SOUTHEAST WI SHORTLY. UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
EASTERN MN WL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THERMAL TROF SETTLES OVER SRN WI OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT TAF SITES FOR A
PORTION OF THE LATE NIGHT INTO TUE MRNG AS THERMAL TROF SETTLES IN
AND MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS LIKELY NOT TO BREAK
UP UNTIL LATER TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 06Z. STILL GETTING
LAKESHORE GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT... DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE... BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN.

TEMPS WILL KEEP FALLING TONIGHT...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO AROUND 0C BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR MID MAY... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO SRN WI TUE NT BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TIME TO COOL UNDER MO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA. LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE THOSE LOCATION ARE FORECAST WITH SOME
FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR A FROST
ADVISORY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS IA ON WED AND NRN IL
WED NT BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE MODELS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SYSTEM TO GO FARTHER SOUTH. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY THICK FOR WED INTO WED EVE OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA VIA MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF JET
STREAK. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR
SW CWA FOR WED AFT AND EVENING SINCE THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND PVA WILL BE ACROSS NRN IL. CLOUDS AND A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON WED IN THE 50S BUT NEAR 60 TOWARD
CENTRAL WI VIA PTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WLY WINDS TO THEN DEVELOP WED NT
AND THU AHEAD OF A WEAK W-E SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER S WI AND GIVEN MO SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE...THUS SOME LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WEAK SFC TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NRN GREAT
LAKES TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY BUT BECOME SLY BY SAT AFTERNOON. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BUT COOLER NEAR LAKE MI. A PORTION OF THE WRN USA
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ESTABLISH SW FLOW ALOFT. A SFC TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD WI WITH PLENTY OF THETAE ADVECTION FOR
SUN-MON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AGL TO DEVELOP
FROM MSN TO MKE AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL MID TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE WRAP-AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

MARINE...

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH LATE EVENING. WAVES WILL STAY ON THE LOW END DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK


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