Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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007
FXUS63 KMKX 101628
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE. NONE OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS GRABBED ON
TO THE TENDRIL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AT
LEAST SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHEAST. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR...THOUGH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE BAND OF
VFR/MVFR CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE
NORTH. PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING CIGS TO HOVER AROUND THAT
3KFT LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY...SKEWING TOWARD JUST ABOVE 3KFT AS THE
DAY GOES ON. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LAKE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER WITH WHETHER IT WILL CLEAR OUT
AND IF SO...HOW FAST.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FROM THE SURFACE ON UP THROUGH THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STACKED
TROUGH ENTERING NEW ENGLAND.  NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THIS PATTERN
LOCALLY TODAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS PLACED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND -20C.  IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXTENDING UP
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A CLEAR SLOT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.  NONE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 3KFT WITH THE 10.06Z RAP THE CLOSEST WHEN COMPARED
TO THE HRRR/WRF-ARW/NMM.  WITH THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...AM
EXPECTING THAT SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF OF THE LAKE WILL
HELP TO KEEP SOME SORT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY UNTIL THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE WESTERLY. SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FROM MN INTO IA AND IL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS FLOW HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LWR MI WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GRT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN
WI. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS WITH
NEGATIVE LOW AND EVEN POSSIBLE MID 20S CELSIUS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING
NEAR OR IN SOME CASES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND STRENGTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
WEAKER GRADIENT SETTING UP WITH 1040 MILLIBAR HIGH DRAWING CLOSER
FROM MN AND IA. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE WIND
POTENTIAL.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE CHILLY SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
SEEMS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LINGERING INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE AT THE OUTSET...MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING EAST FROM DAKOTAS/MN AND IA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAA REGIME SETS UP INITIALLY
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESS PRODUCTIVE QPF THAN THE GFS. 850
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES.
BEST DCVA PROGGD TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE ERLY EVE
HRS.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THOUGH STILL LINGERING MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW. SO SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
PRETTY BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM IN MUCH
QUICKER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS....WHICH FAR
NOW ANYWAYS...FAVORS THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CLEAR SKIES ON BOTH SIDES
OF IT. EXPECTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY AT MSN WHERE THE BAND
IS CURRENTLY SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT LONGER IF THE WAVES STAY UP IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



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