Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171617
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1117 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
WITH INFLUENCE OF HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS STILL IN CONTROL. THE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING
HOLD. MORE MOISTURE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER...SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
FORECAST. ANY FOG TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE WIS RVR VLY.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SRN WI WILL BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CENTRAL USA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z FRI WITH VERY LIGHT SLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER SRN WI TNT. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN WI
TNT. THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TNT.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA...LEANED TOWARD THE DRY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. KEPT THINGS DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAK.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY IN
MOST AREAS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
LAKE EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL LINGER DURING THIS TIME...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. KEPT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRY...AS WARMER AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS CAPS THE AREA TO ANY CONVECTION. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER EACH DAY.

GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THEY BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE QPF NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THAT AREA. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FOR NOW...MAY NEED TO REDUCE THESE IN LATER FORECASTS.
IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD


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