Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180143
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHED EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH ALSO HELPED THINGS
ALONG. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF/CDFNT TONIGHT
AS THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. POST FRONTAL
COLD ADVECTION IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS AS WELL.

LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATER SATURDAY MORNING
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...MAKING FOR A COOLER
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS VARYING BETWEEN ABOUT
2500-3500FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING RAPID CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO STEADILY DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...

BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND
THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WATCHING UPSTREAM SHOWERS RIGHT NOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BOOST POPS
UP QUITE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IF THIS AREA OF RAIN
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. IT SHOULD TURN MAINLY DRY BY AROUND 9
PM...WITH MAYBE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS THROUGH.

LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY CLEARING WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LARGE MERIDIONAL POLAR HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT NT INTO SUN AM. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
INLAND FROM LAKE MI WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FAR SE WI WHERE WE HAVE NOT YET ENDED
THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DIG
SEWD FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND MON. THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL STILL MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SRN
WI...THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE ERN
AND NRN CWA. SWLY WINDS AND THE LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS ON SUN
SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
AFTERWARD...CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUN NT AND MON WITH A COLD
FROPA ON MON.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER MON NT INTO TUE DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE DIGGING POLAR TROUGH TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGING AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHT AND THICKNESSES RISE EACH DAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND WRN USA WITH A WARM WSWLY SFC FLOW OVER SRN
WI.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BY MID OR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY...AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HIGHER WAVES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL BUILD WAVES TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER WAVES
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.