Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200223
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
923 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...CONSIDERED ISSUING FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...BUT THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS TUMBLING TO AROUND 33 BUT EXPECT FROST DEVELOPMENT
TO REMAIN MORE PATCHY DUE TO THE CLOUDS. HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON
FROST ADVY AND ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING FROST.
WILL ALSO EXTEND PATCHY FROST MENTION FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE
KENOSHA...RACINE AND BURLINGTON AREAS...AWAY FROM LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT -RA
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES LATER ON WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS. WINDS GO LIGHT WITH THE SLACKENING
GRADIENT. LINGERING COLD POOL STRATOCU TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING
INTO THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING ACRS IA TOWARDS WI. WHILE
700 RH STAYS SOUTHWEST THE 500 AND 400 MILLIBAR RH INCREASES AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE PATCHY FROST WHERE
WE HAVE IT. NOT GOING TO GO WITH MORE COVERAGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE MODELS SHOWING THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...BUT THE NE CWA IS MOST VULNERABLE FOR THE FROST. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS BE DELAYED OR NOT AS THICK THEN FROST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH A HEADLINE POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED. WILL PASS ALONG TO EVE
SHIFT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH A GLANCING SHOT TO THE
FAR SW/SC CWA. WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS THERE. SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MORE PREVALENT. GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED CWA WIDE. HOWEVER THINNEST CLOUD
COVER IN THE NRN CWA SO HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WED NT AS A COUPLE VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS AND AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI THU AM BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DURING
THIS TIME A WLY SFC FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A W-E HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND A W-E SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THUS WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE WED NT AND
INCREASE THU AFT AS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS SWD INTO THE
AREA. GIVEN THIS AND THE DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE...WENT WITH
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER 70S.
BELIEVE THE WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE LAKE
BREEZE FROM FORMING SO NO COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL HAVE DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS
OVER THE FOX RIVER VALLEY TOWARD GREEN BAY FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE WEAK AND BRIEF
SHOWERS COULD SLIDE SEWD INTO FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SWWD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WRN AND ERN GREAT LAKES
FOR FRI. THE ELY FLOW WILL COOL OFF FAR ERN WI FOR FRI ALTHOUGH
STILL PLEASANT TEMPS.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST FOR
SAT AND SAT NT. SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BUT THE MOISTURE AND BETTER
LIFT WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUN OR SUN NT. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED SOME FOR SAT NT AND SUN. AFTERWARD...SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY. 50-60 PERCENT POPS ARE FORECAST
FOR SUN NT AND MON WITH DECREASING POPS INTO TUE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY VFR STRATOCU DECREASING. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOWER CLOUD
COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH SFC HIGH NUDGING IN. WINDS
EXPECTED TO EASE AND BECOME VARIABLE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP SOUTH OF TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVELS PROGGD TO REMAIN DRY SO EXPECT MAINLY A MID DECK WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK


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