Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 142043
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY
STUBBORN TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN THE AREA. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SO STILL THINKING
SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW BEGIN FALLING IN THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES TOMORROW.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MID LEVEL TROF AND
SHORT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS STILL LOOKING QUITE
DEEP WITH THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE AN IMPRESSIVE 10KFT FOR A TIME.
THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS
FROM EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS.

THE QPF IS RANGING FROM AROUND .08-.10 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO
AROUND .15 NORTHWEST OF MADISON. THIS TRANSLATES TO AROUND 1 INCH
OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO 2.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF MADISON.

LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL COLD
HOWEVER.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND LIKELY BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEP AND
PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ANY ACCUMS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. LOOK FOR COLD TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODIFY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF FLURRIES...BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT A MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
KEEP US QUIET INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY STUBBORN TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN THE AREA. THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO STILL THINKING SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW BEGIN FALLING IN THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN AFFECT ALL
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
AROUND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW EXPECTED MOST PLACES. IT SHOULD BE A
DRIER SNOW...WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 17 TO 1.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS



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