Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 182028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT... DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE... BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN.

TEMPS WILL KEEP FALLING TONIGHT...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO AROUND 0C BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR MID MAY... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO SRN WI TUE NT BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TIME TO COOL UNDER MO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA. LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE THOSE LOCATION ARE FORECAST WITH SOME
FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR A FROST
ADVISORY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS IA ON WED AND NRN IL
WED NT BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE MODELS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE SYSTEM TO GO FARTHER SOUTH. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY THICK FOR WED INTO WED EVE OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA VIA MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF JET
STREAK. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR
SW CWA FOR WED AFT AND EVENING SINCE THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND PVA WILL BE ACROSS NRN IL. CLOUDS AND A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON WED IN THE 50S BUT NEAR 60 TOWARD
CENTRAL WI VIA PTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WLY WINDS TO THEN DEVELOP WED NT
AND THU AHEAD OF A WEAK W-E SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER S WI AND GIVEN MO SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE...THUS SOME LOWER 70S EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WEAK SFC TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NRN GREAT
LAKES TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY BUT BECOME SLY BY SAT AFTERNOON. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BUT COOLER NEAR LAKE MI. A PORTION OF THE WRN USA
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ESTABLISH SW FLOW ALOFT. A SFC TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD WI WITH PLENTY OF THETAE ADVECTION FOR
SUN-MON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AGL TO DEVELOP
FROM MSN TO MKE AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL MID TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE WRAP-AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH LATE EVENING. WAVES WILL STAY ON THE LOW END DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 AM.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING



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