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000
FXUS63 KMKX 130822
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING LEAVING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

700 MB DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE NAM AND RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW LEVEL DRYING...EXCEPT FOR SOME 850
MB MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THIS IS JUST BELOW THE BASE OF A STRONG INVERSION AND IS
VERY SHALLOW.  THEREFORE MAINLY SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

STILL SOME BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SUNSHINE...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT
NORTH TO EAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE IN THE MID 70S.

DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INLAND ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE FEWER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THAN TODAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THIS
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS IA/IL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS/MCS SEEMS THE LIKELY MODE OF CONVECTION
WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WI ARE IN THE SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AREA.

THERE MAY BE ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
WEAK 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BUT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS WILL EITHER
JUST BARELY CLIP SOUTH CENTRAL WI OR SLIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE NOSE OF THAT LOW LEVEL JET
CAN GET.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS HAS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF REMAINING
JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NOW
LINES UP WELL WITH THE ECMWF TIMING. THIS MEANS SUNDAY SHOULD END UP
BEING A NICE DAY WITH QUIET WEATHER AND HIGHS AROUND 80. EXPECT POPS
TO BE LOWERED IN SOUTHERN WI WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER IL IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND A 500MB SHORTWAVE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF WISCONSIN AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE OVERALL DRY LOOK OF THE FCST
SOUNDINGS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS WISCONSIN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. OVERALL THE WEATHER
WILL BE QUIET FOR SOUTHERN WI. MODELS KEEP TRYING TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS BUT NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE MOISTURE.

THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S. THURSDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
PLEASANT AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPS. THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCE WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MID/LOW LEVEL DRYING THIS MORNING AS CEILINGS IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD RISE EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS...THAT MAY BE BRIEFLY BROKEN OVER POTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

BRISK NORTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE PERSISTENT ALONG SHORE FETCH WILL
LIKELY BUILD HIGHER WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC