Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291600
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. ALSO ADDED DZ WITH 88-D AND SFC OBS INCLUDING
HERE AT MKX REPORTING DZ. STRATUS HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD IN THE
STATE. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS KEEPING CLOUDS/STRATUS AND FOG
LOCKED IN PLACE. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY HOLES WITH LATE
AUGUST SUN STILL STRONG AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER NOT BANKING
ON MUCH SKY IMPROVEMENT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITHIN WEAKLY
INVERTED TROUGH AND JUST NO LOW LEVEL PUSH TO CLEAR THIS STUFF
OUT. SO TRENDING SKY GRIDS MORE PESSIMISTIC CWA WIDE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN AS WELL.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VERY WEAK 925/850 FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. DO NOT THINK PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THE IFR/LIFR CIGS THAT ARE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...SOON TO OVERTAKE THE FAR SE AS WELL.
RAP SOUNDINGS LOOK TO DRY THINGS OUT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING
BUT LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE METMOS GUID GIVEN PRESENT VSBL
IMAGERY/SFC OBS. NOT EXPECTING TO MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO VSBY GRIDS
AS STRATUS LIKELY TO KEEP VSBYS FROM GETTING TOO DENSE THOUGH LOW
LEVELS ARE MORE MOIST DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS. EXPECTING THE
WDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
AXIS OF 1.5 INCH TO 1.7 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT HAVE
PUSHED INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT NOSES INTO
SW WI THIS MORNING BEFORE SAGGING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS
OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS THIS MORNING AS AXIS OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET. HOWEVER ALL MODELS
SHOW 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST OF STATE UNTIL WEAK
SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE
MN...DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO BASE OF TROUGH WHICH DOES NOT CLEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL SOME TIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SUNDAY. SOME
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE LINGERS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED
TROUGH SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST...TAPERING THEM OFF FROM
NW TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

500 MB TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...WITH INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO IL/IN. NAM ALONE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF
IN ALONG-SHORE CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT COULD BE NO MORE THAN DRIZZLE
AS COLUMN IS DRY ABOVE LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO WILL LEAVE AREA DRY TONIGHT. THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 3
MILE RANGE...WITH POTENTIAL OF DIPPING TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILES IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAN INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE...SO SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP SHOULD
PUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING A FEW
STORMS AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THERE.
SHOULD BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THOUGH. MAIN STORY WILL BE
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 AT TIMES.
IT WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN MOST DAYS
UNDER AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WHILE STEADY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING...SLOW MOVEMENT OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE IFR
CLOUD DECK EXTENDS BACK WELL WEST ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN WI SO WILL KEEP IFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING
..AND BASED ON TRENDS AT ISSUANCE...WILL TRY TO RAISE TO MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SLOWER
TO RISE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES OVER THE
AREA...BUT ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE...WITH POTENTIAL OF DIPPING TO
1/4 TO 1/2 MILES IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

BEACHES...

PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES AT BEACHES FROM MILWAUKEE COUNTY NORTH THROUGH SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY. THIS IS CREATING A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND
STRUCTURAL CURRENTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WHEN WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV


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