Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 290338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
838 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPED BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH PER 00Z KTWC SOUNDING. DRY WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED WIND AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN FEATURES WITH SOME
MODEST LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE 800MB. TEMPS RUNNING
NEAR CLIMO AGAIN TONIGHT.

ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS PHASING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AND INTENSIFYING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF TEMPERATURES AROUND 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD IN SOME SPOTS FRIDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BY MONDAY...SO STILL
COMFORTABLE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO. THE STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
HELPING TO DRIVE THE RIDGE AMPLITUDE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
INITIAL SHOT OF ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT RIDES INTO THE BACK OF
THE RIDGE SATURDAY. WEAKER REINFORCING ENERGY WILL DIG THE TROUGH A
LITTLE DEEPER AS IT PUSHES ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SE AZ SUNDAY. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE IT WILL BE A WEAKENING SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE COOLER AIR BEHIND IT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DROP FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON TIMING ISSUES IF THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT TENDS TO STALL IN AN WEST-EAST ORIENTATION SUNDAY.

COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COULD TOUCH FREEZING IN COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS SUCH AS WILLCOX AND DOUGLAS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...GL
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/FRENCH








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