Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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887
FXUS65 KTWC 051014
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE DAY...THEN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW EAST OF OUR
AREA. WHILE WE WON`T MANAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY...THEY
WILL STILL GENERALLY CLIMB TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AS A
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. FOR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED
FRIDAY...PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL CAUSE BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MOST OF THOSE CONCERNS ON FRIDAY WILL BE FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD.

THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE AVAILABLE UPSTREAM OF THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW...BUT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WATCH FOR HIGH
BASED STORMS WITH VIGOROUS OUTFLOW POTENTIAL

A STRONG COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK 10 OR MORE
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY SATURDAY.

DRY WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
PATCHES OF MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES...REMAINING CLEAR BELOW 15K
FT. INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING WINDY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SLY/ SWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 153. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ150-151.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ151>153.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
     AZZ507-508-511>513.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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