Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270949 CCA
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ...Corrected Date
247 AM MST WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into this weekend. Perhaps some decrease
in coverage will occur around Thursday. Expect hotter than average
daytime temperatures through Thursday followed by moderating
temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper high centered over southern Nevada early this
morning with the steering from the northeast already in place. Radar
was still detecting a few flareups of showers and thunderstorms
early this morning. Most of this activity should continue to move
south of Tucson from the northeast to southwest. Latest HRRR
solutions keep this activity going through about 15Z before
diminishing. Then after a brief break in the activity, the model
showed it redeveloping in the mountains east of Tucson and
eventually tracking southwest into the lower deserts. This scenario
looked reasonable based on recent trends and the flow pattern in
place today. Latest GFS showed the upper high remaining over
southern Nevada through at least Friday, then shift it to a position
over northern New Mexico by Monday. The model showed a significant
upswing in rainfall coverage this weekend. At any rate, will keep
similar POP values going in the forecast and delay the cooler
daytime temperatures until Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
Remnant debris cloudiness above 10k ft agl will gradually diminish
as the morning progresses. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop again starting this afternoon and
continue into the evening with the main focus area being across the
mountains and locations from Tucson south and eastward. Brief wind
gusts to 45 kts and MVFR conditions are possible with the stronger
TSRA. Otherwise, sfc wind mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will continue into early next week. Expect the storms later today to
develop over the White mountains and move SW off the higher terrain
into valley locations mainly south and east of Tucson. Perhaps a bit
less areal coverage of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday before
increased moisture moves in this weekend into early next week.
Afternoon temperatures will remain a bit warmer than average through
Friday, then drop to near normal by early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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