Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS65 KTWC 281620
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR
A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS-MID 20S...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY 2-6 DEGS LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 28/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.27 INCH WAS DOWN ABOUT 0.11
INCH VERSUS THIS TIME WED. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS OF 9 AM MST.

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR NW ARIZONA WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INTO
SE UTAH THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS THE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE NORTH OF TUCSON.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ503-507>513. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT PHXNPWTWC /WMO
HEADER WWUS75 KTWC/ FOR DETAIL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
MPH FOR MOST LOCALES BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT 3-10 DEGS
COOLER VERSUS WED.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME BASED ON RECEIPT OF THE
28/12Z NAM/GFS AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL THEN PREVAIL MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 10K-15K FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY AT 12-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 29/06Z AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FT WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 12 TO 17 PCT RANGE...SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151 AND MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. EXPECT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LESS WIND FORECAST TO OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /238 AM MST/...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN UTAH AND NRN ARIZONA TODAY...REACHING THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN EXITING INTO SRN
COLORADO AND NRN NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS ANOTHER JUST UPSTREAM OVER NEVADA THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND THEN
A SLIGHT CHANCE MOSTLY JUST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...AND SOUTHEAST GRAHAM
AND SRN GREENLEE COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
MODIFIED YESTERDAY TO INCLUDE MORE REAL ESTATE FARTHER TO THE WEST
AND TO UPGRADE IT FROM A WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER AND WWA SECTIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
WILL HOVER WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
      THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF AZZ151 AND MUCH OF AZZ152.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
      AZZ503-507>513.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.