Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212211
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SSEWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
INHERITED POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED...THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF TUCSON
AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES THUR-SAT. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS FRI AS THE WARMEST DAY...SATURDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST
COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS MON...
AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS SUN
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/23Z.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU
22/04Z. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER COCHISE...GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL





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