Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue this
week. A trough of low pressure moving through western states
mainly north of us will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to
the area through Monday night, but many locations will miss out.
Dry conditions return late Tuesday through Thursday, with another
slight chance of showers on Friday.


.DISCUSSION...The ridge axis is well east of our area with the
back side of the ridge dirtying up ahead of a developing trough
moving in from the eastern Pacific. Increasing moisture in the
mid level southerly to southwesterly flow pushed our precipitable
water up to around .8 by yesterday afternoon. Current CIRA layered
PW totals as well as latest GEFS plumes suggest that this will
increase to between .9 and 1 inch over the next 24 hours. Surface
dew points are also responding, up 5 to 10 degrees over the past
24 hours putting them generally in the 40s.

We have two triggers to take advantage of this moisture over the
next 36 hours. First is a weak impulse embedded in the
southwesterly flow well ahead of the trough this afternoon that,
along with above average surface heating for late October, should
bring a few lightning strikes this afternoon.

The second trigger will be the dynamics associated with far
southern portions of the trough itself lifting through Arizona
Monday afternoon and Monday night. Better dynamics with this, but
the best action will probably end up north of our area.

The ridge regains full control late Tuesday through Thursday.
Another glancing blow from a system pushing through the central
and northern Great Basin could bring a few showers Friday.

There`s just no strong fall system that will push our temperatures
back even close to normal in sight the rest of the month. This
October is going to go into the books as a hot one for our area.


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
A FEW clouds at 12-18k ft AGL this morning, becoming SCT-BKN at
around 10k ft AGL this afternoon. There is a slight chance of -TSRA/-
SHRA thru the forecast period. Outside of any thunderstorm wind
gusts, SFC wind will be mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. A few lingering showers are
possible Tuesday afternoon in the White Mountains. Dry conditions
will prevail late Tuesday into early Friday. Another system will
then bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday into
next weekend. Above normal daytime temperatures are expected to
continue through the period, with 20-foot winds less than 15 mph
outside of any thunderstorms.


.CLIMATE...Another day, another record high at Tucson International
Airport yesterday. The high temperature of 96 degrees was not only a
daily record, it also marked the latest back-to-back 96 degree
days TIA has ever seen in the calendar year.






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