Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 120850
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 AM MST Tue Mar 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected
through the middle of the week. Another storm system will impact
the area mid to late in the week with cooler temperatures and a
chance of showers. Gusty winds should also accompany this system
as it approaches Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak troughiness will push across the area from the
west today, however we should still see heights and thicknesses
support temperatures several degrees above average. Patchy mid and
high cloud embedded in the flow, otherwise remaining dry into
Wednesday.

The flow is going to become more amplified, with a strong system
pushing down through the Great Basin and intermountain west as a
high amplitude ridge builds just off the west coast. The resulting
mean trough position will be with us for a few days, with the
gradient tightening to locally windy levels Wednesday afternoon.
The initial impulse will lift into the Great Plains Wednesday even
as a stronger low carves down the back side of the trough and into
Arizona Thursday. Ensemble mean timing and trajectories continue
to support a more impactful system for SE AZ than earlier NBM
trends, however progress continues there as more ensemble members
that show a deeper and slower solution slowly push the NBM closer
to ECMWF ensembles (which show much more significant negative
height anomalies Thursday into at least Saturday).

Still thinking the NBM is a little underdone with the potential
of a slowly filling low digging into the area later Thursday into
Friday, and possibly lingering through weekend. The low could
actually linger into next week if it manages to cut off from
higher latitude support. NAEFS mean integrated WV transport and
ECMWF extreme forecast index continue to shift toward solutions
with more impressive moisture fields.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
SCT-BKN cirrus above 20k feet. Light winds under 10 kts this
morning, becoming SWLY-WLY 8-15 kts after 12/19Z and the light
and variable overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected through the middle of
the week. Minimum relative humidity through Tuesday should bottom
out around 10 to 15 percent in the valleys and 20 to 25 percent
at higher elevation. 20 foot winds of 10-15 mph each of these
afternoons will also be expected. Wind speeds increase to 15-25
mph Wednesday into Friday as a weather system approaches. Minimum
relative humidities should come up a bit as temperatures
decrease, but there may still be some overlap of increased winds
and lower relative humidity Wednesday. Cooler temperatures with a
chance for showers later Thursday and Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Meyer

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