Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231700
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCE RECENTLY. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING HELPED IMPROVE OUR MOISTURE CONTENT.
PRECIP WATER VALUE HIT 1.59...WHICH MATCHES THE SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIP WATER FIELDS WITH THE 1.50 INCH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF S.E.
AZ. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED MORE INSTABILITY IN PLACE THAN RECENT
DAYS...AND WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...WE ARE IN GOOD SHAPE TO REALIZE
THAT POTENTIAL. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW MCS EVENTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO OUR MOISTURE INCREASE
TODAY.

HI RESOLUTION MODELS...HRRR AND WRF VARIANTS...HAVE A FEW
CONSISTENCIES FOR TODAY. THE CONSISTENCIES WOULD POINT TO THE BEST
SHOT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE 18 TO 20Z RANGE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...THEN SPREAD WEST INTO PIMA COUNTY DUE TO THE BETTER LL
EASTERLY MEAN FLOW STARTING AROUND 22 OR 23Z. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. IN FACT...OUR LOCAL WRF RUN
AND THE UOFA WRF BOTH HINT AT STRONG OUTFLOW IMPACTING PINAL COUNTY
TODAY. THAT MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS FOR BLOWING DUST...BUT GIVEN
THAT THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING THE OUTFLOW AT ALL...I PLAN TO PLAY THE
WAIT AND SEE GAME TODAY AND HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY DUST ADVISORIES.
FINGERS WILL BE ON THE TRIGGER THOUGH IF RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE
WRF RUNS. EITHER WAY...BE AWARE OF THE BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL ACROSS
PINAL COUNTY TODAY.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
REMNANT ISOLATED -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 10K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP AFT
18Z...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER
20Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MOISTURE
BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAD FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING AROUND 60 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THAT
SAID...STILL EXPECTING HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY EVEN
THOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AND A CLOUDY SKY WAS PRESENT.
THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
EAST AND THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BREAK WILL
ALSO BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
THROUGH MEXICO WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS
WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE
WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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