Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 291015
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE AZ WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 27N/127W EARLY THIS
MORNING. CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THRU TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAINLY ABOVE
700 MB WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE BAJA SPUR. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON MORNING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN
COCHISE COUNTY.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA MIDDAY MON WILL
MOVE EWD INTO SE AZ MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES LATE MON
NIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WED-SAT UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
THUR AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE 29/00Z GFS PRODUCED RAIN AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SAT AFTERNOON. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENCROACHING UPON
FAR ERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION AND HAVE
FAVORED THE DRY ECMWF THAT DEPICTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE MUCH
FURTHER EAST ADJACENT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT...
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPS AGAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A VERY
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR MON-THUR FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-SAT. HIGH TEMPS MON-TUE
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGS BELOW RECORD VALUES. HOWEVER...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 15K FT AGL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MON MORNING...AS WELL AS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SE
OF KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY:

                                MARCH 29
                          FORECAST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT          93       91/1943
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT       85       85/2012
AJO                          93       93/1943
FORT THOMAS                  89       86/2012
KITT PEAK                    75       73/1986
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS            92       98/1971
PICACHO PEAK                 94       93/2004
SAFFORD AG STATION           88       89/1953
SIERRA VISTA FD              84       83/2012
TOMBSTONE                    85       86/1943
WILLCOX                      85       88/1916

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS




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