Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 051009
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
308 AM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAD BEEN IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS WHERE OVER INCH OF
RAIN HAD FALLEN IN SPOTS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST AN
UPSWING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THIS WAS MAINLY
BASED ON A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS INDICATED A DECREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY
THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS CALIFORNIA AND TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY E OF KTUS THIS AM. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA DVLPG THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR
ABOVE 8K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF BRIEF STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY. THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.