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000
FXUS65 KTWC 052247
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
345 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PREVAIL FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER NRN CALIFORNIA
AND A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED WEST OF NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
QUASI-STATIONARY INTO FRI...WITH THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING OVER
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SUNNY
SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRI. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS FRI. ALTHOUGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE MET...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH
FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS TO EXPERIENCE HIGHER SPEEDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA THE 05/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SAT. GIVEN THE LIGHT QPF/S DEPICTED VIA
THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST-TO-NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY ELY/SELY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDDAY SAT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD INTO NEW MEXICO. A NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL
PREVAIL SUN-MON IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO MON
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS TUE-WED.
SUNNY SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MAINLY
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
DEPICTED A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ADJACENT THE WEST COAST VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF WAS MORE ROBUST WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA VERSUS THE GFS. EITHER SOLUTION YIELDED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F OR SO WARMER ACROSS SE AZ
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY MINOR DAILY TEMP
CHANGES SAT-SUN...THEN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FOLLOW MON-WED.
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON LOCALIZED WIND
EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/00Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS AT 4-8K FT
AGL ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS THRU 06/03Z...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
EAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG...KFHU AND KSAD. BETWEEN 06/03Z
AND 06/15Z...ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AFT 06/15Z...EXPECT
ELY/SELY WIND AT 12-24 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS...WITH
THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KTUS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH WITH STRONGER
GUSTS. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRANCIS