Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 210350
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SOME BREEZES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY WAS SHOWING NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLING
IN OVER ARIZONA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EXITING AND MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS. IR IMAGERY WAS
INDICATING THAT SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH A BATCH OF MAINLY CIRRUS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH.
AFTER REACHING A HIGH OF 63F TODAY...KTUS WAS DOWN TO 48F AT 0330Z.
TEMPERATURES AROUND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WAS ACHIEVED TODAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SCT TO BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE DIURNAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WHICH MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS WELL AS THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GRADUALLY RISING
HEIGHTS INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MAINLY
THIN CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME.

TROUGHINESS WILL DEEPEN MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE CAN`T RULE
OUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
VALLEYS EAST OF TUCSON ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
MODERATION WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IS
CONTINUING TO TREND KEEPING THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO
OUR NORTH. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TO BE SOME INCREASED BREEZES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING
IN BY ABOUT FRIDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON NORTHEASTWARD AS IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE MOISTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...GL





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.