Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 302156
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 PM MST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING A FEW OF
SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF
TUCSON THROUGH SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIND WAS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AGAIN TODAY...ALONG
WITH BLOWING DUSTY ON INTERSTATE 10 NEAR SAN SIMON. THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND TODAY WAS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA AND OUT WEST NEAR THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS TRACK THIS UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT WITH IT EXITING THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD.
THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START TO SHOW THIS NEXT
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE WIND AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL BKN COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF KTUS. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF KTUS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL. SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY TAPERING OFF TO LESS THAN 12 KTS AFTER 01/03Z.
STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...INCLUDING THE KDUG/KOLS/KALK/KFHU TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
COCHISE COUNTY.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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