Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 041610
AFDTWC

ZCZC PHXWRKAFD 041027
TTAA00 KPHX DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. A GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL MORNING AROUND SE AZ TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND 70S AS OF 04/15Z. THIS MAKES FOR SOME SOUPY AIR...AS
DEWPOINTS ARE REGISTERING IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. A FEW WEAK
ECHOES CONTINUE TO BE DETECTED BY KEMX...MAINLY OVER NE COCHISE/SE
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WAS NOTED AS
THIS AREA OF PRECIP MOVED OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LONG FETCH OF CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KEVIN PUSHING INTO SE AZ FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OUT
EAST...SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ADDITIONALLY...04/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING INDICATED SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
PWAT WAS DOWN ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. WITH ALL THESE THINGS CONSIDERED...IT SEEMS STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TODAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/CONVECTIVE TRIGGER. HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR/AZ
WRFNAM/AZ WRFGFS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP AROUND 04/19Z. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
CONSIDERABLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS HANDLING THE NEAR-TERM TRENDS WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY S AND E OF KTUS THIS MORNING WITH SCTD -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA AFT 04/19Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS TO
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. AS KEVIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE WNW AND
WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO ENHANCE STORM
 ACTIVITY AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. MAINLY CONCERN
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE LESS ACTIVE OF THE TWO
DAYS.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRENCH



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