167
FXUS65 KTWC 112043
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
143 PM MST Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.
Expect isolated thunderstorms limited to areas near the
International Border from Nogales eastward into this evening and
along the NM border Saturday. An increase in monsoonal activity on
Sunday, especially for locales east of Tucson and then next week for
the entire forecast area. As moisture and storm chances increase
next week, temperatures will drop back down to seasonable levels.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low grade monsoon pattern through Saturday. Isolated to low end
scattered storm chances today mainly along the Int`l border from
Nogales. For Saturday, thunderstorm chances expand northward along
the NM border into the White Mountains.

- Slightly above normal temperatures this weekend, then cooling
trends start around Tuesday with near to slightly below normal temps
mid to late next week.

- Monsoonal activity ramps up again as early as Sunday, with
increased moisture. More active monsoon pattern through next week.

.DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows partly
cloudy skies across southeast Arizona this afternoon with a nice
cumulus field due to the increase in lower level moisture. However,
the cumulus is fairly flat as subsidence and warmer temperatures
aloft is preventing much in the way of vertical build-ups. An east-
west elongated mid/upper level high is located from southern Arizona
to off the southern California coast. This is resulting in continued
northwesterly flow aloft with continued mid level drier air
advecting in. Latest HREF/CAMs continue to show isolated to low end
scattered thunderstorms chances primarily confined to the southern
half of Cochise County into the early evening with slight chances
extending as far west as Nogales. Meanwhile, breezy west to
northwest winds continue this afternoon, especially in the upper
Gila River Valley including Safford where gusts are currently around
35 mph.

The aforementioned mid-upper level ridge remains fairly stationary
through Saturday with once again a low grade monsoon day. Perhaps a
few more storms in the White Mtns and along the NM border extending
into southern Cochise County but overall a low activity day. Gusty
outflow winds remain the primary threat with any storms. High
temperatures similar to today, with a degree or two of cooling in
spots.

Sunday will be the transition day into a more active pattern that
will continue through next week. While the high center will remain
to our west, the orientation of the high in combination with of mid-
upper level troughiness to our east will result in more favorable
diffluence aloft near the NM border. This will help in storm
development over the White and Gila Mtns that will push to the SW
into valleys of Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties. More uncertainty
on whether storms make it as far west as Tucson, and this is
something we`ll be trying to get a better handle on in the next day
or so. Certainly increasing likelihood of strong gusty outflow winds
coming in from the east by Sunday evening even if the storms don`t
make it as far west of Tucson.

Next week is shaping up to be an active monsoon week right as we get
into the heart of the monsoon from a climatological perspective. The
mid-upper level high will gradually shift towards the Four Corners
with NE flow over SE Arizona early in the week, which will then
transition to east to southeast flow with the high to our northeast
and a mid level disturbance to our south and west helping to pump in
additional moisture with elevated storm chances. This type of setup
would yield storm impacts leaning towards a severe threat at the
beginning of the week with a transition to both a severe and flash
flood threat as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 10-15 kts thru
12/04Z with gusts 20-25 kts. Stronger winds for KSAD and vicinity
with gusts up to around 30 kts. SFC winds subside to 12 kts or less
aft 12/04Z thru 12/19Z before becoming WLY/NWLY at 10-15 kts thru
end of the valid period.  SKC-SCT clouds 8-13k ft AGL thru the valid
period with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA near KDUG thru 12/03Z and again
aft 12/20Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorm coverage is expected to the
south and east of Tucson, mainly along the International Border
through Saturday. The main threat for storms will be the potential
for strong gusty and erratic outflow winds 40-45 mph. Otherwise, an
uptick in monsoon activity is expected beginning Sunday and through
next week as the upper high shifts to a more favorable location
aloft. Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday, then
drop back down to near or slightly below normal by mid to late next
week. Winds will remain westerly from 10-15 mph, with occasional
gusts at or above 20 mph, with the exception of stronger winds in
the Gila River Valley through Saturday with northwest sustained
winds around 15 to 20 MPH gusts to 30 MPH. Afternoon RH values in
the low lying areas will be between 20-25%.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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