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000
FXUS65 KTWC 081016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SERN COLORADO SWWD
INTO NERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING. VARIOUS 08/00Z NWP MODELS WERE VERY
SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR TUCSON THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD
INTO NERN SONORA SUN MORNING. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF
VERSUS THE NAM REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A SAFFORD TO BISBEE LINE. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE
TUCSON METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AS WELL AS
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. ANY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA WIDE SUN-FRI.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NWLY-NELY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SSEWD...THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE GRIDDED DATA WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASED TO
DEPICT BREEZY ELY WINDS SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY
INCLUDING TUCSON. SOME BREEZINESS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN TUE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP OVER
NRN/CENTRAL AZ WED NIGHT-THUR WILL BE NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED FRI...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST
LOCALES SUN. WARMER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL MON FOLLOWED BY ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/
-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AND ESPECIALLY -TSRA
WILL OCCUR AT THE KDUG TERMINAL. CLOUD DECKS THRU THIS EVENING WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 5-9K FT AGL...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS MORNING
WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE NWLY TO NELY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KTS. SURFACE WIND LATE TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ELY 5-15 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM TUCSON EASTWARD
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME BREEZINESS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS