Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 172048
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 PM MST Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low over Arizona will bring
unsettled weather to the area through the early part of this week.
Scattered showers and even a slight chance of a thunderstorm will be
most prevalent to the northeast of Tucson across Graham and Greenlee
Counties, especially Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm to
near normal levels early in the week, then to above normal levels
late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest WV imagery shows the upper low spinning near
Globe this afternoon. Most of the CWA is exhibiting a nice cumulus
field per visible satellite. There are a few showers mainly across
eastern Pinal/Graham/Greenlee Counties closer to the upper low and
those will tend to persist through this afternoon with the aid of
daytime heating.

Latest HREF shows the upper low retrograding westward tonight into
Monday to near the CA/AZ border. As this occurs, an east push due to
surface high pressure along the southern Rockies will move into our
eastern zones allowing for gusty east to southeast winds during the
day Monday. While winds are expected to remain below advisory
thresholds, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected especially in
the upper Gila River Valley. Meanwhile, as the upper low remains to
the west and another disturbance rotates around it, higher levels of
moisture will be available to the east and northeast of Tucson with
PWAT values above 0.5 inches. Thus, expect scattered showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms mainly to the north/east of I-10.
Tucson is on the western edge of mentionable precipitation chances
Monday with PoPs around 15 percent. Snow levels will be around 8000-
8500 feet and in the White Mountains where QPF values are higher, 4
to 8 inches are possible along the mountain peaks around 9000 feet
in northern Greenlee County. Temperatures Monday will warm to near
normal levels from Tucson westward and remain below normal mainly
for Graham and Greenlee Counties.

The upper low will still persist across Arizona on Tuesday with
scattered showers mostly focused on the higher terrain of
Graham/Greenlee Counties. During this time, the upper low will start
to get absorbed into the flow and transition into an open wave as it
shifts to our east on Wednesday as precipitation chances diminish.

Thereafter, drier westerly flow Thursday and Friday with shortwave
ridging and warmer temperatures. Ensembles are showing another
trough next weekend which will bring an increase in breezes
Saturday, then cooler temperatures, continued wind and depending on
the trajectory some precipitation chances.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
SCT to ocnl BKN clouds 7k-10k ft MSL through the period with a
few showers and slight chance -TSRA mainly to the northeast of KTUS
across eastern Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties. There will be
areas of SKC mainly south of KTUS. SFC winds WLY 8-13 kts into early
this evening, otherwise light and variable thru 18/12Z.
Thereafter, ELY/SELY winds increase for KSAD and KDUG to 15-25 kts
with gusts 30 to 35 kts late Monday morning and afternoon. Further
west for KTUS/KOLS, SELY winds around 6 to 12 kts, shifting to
westerly/southwesterly in the afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and slight chances of
thunderstorms Monday/Tuesday mainly to the northeast of Tucson with
precipitation chances diminishing Wednesday. Temperatures gradually
rising and drifting above normal by Thursday. Gusty east to
southeast winds with gusts above 30 mph for eastern areas Monday,
otherwise typical diurnal wind patterns are expected
through the week with minimum RHs remaining above 20% through
Wednesday then dipping into the teens in the valleys thereafter.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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