Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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782
FXUS65 KTWC 070356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
856 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER FOR THE COMING WEEK...WITH NEAR
RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WITH A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHWEST INTO SRN
CALIFORNIA. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BATCH OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA
(PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES) AND SOUTHWARD COVERING A
LARGE PART OF WEST AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING NORTHEAST TO EAST. MAY SEE SOME OF THESE...MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO THE TRANSPARENCY OF THESE
TYPE OF CLOUDS.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE
LOWER 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 61 DEGS
AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 74 DEGS...WHICH WAS 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT READINGS SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH
THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MOST
RECENT TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE THE `POINT FORECAST MATRIX` PRODUCT
(PHXPFMTWC).

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS BEYOND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/06Z.
VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES AT 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PHASE IN FROM THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...DIRTIED UP A
BIT BY A WEAK LOW MEANDERING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUBSEQUENT UNSEASONABLE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES
WILL TRANSLATE TO NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE SONG REMAINS THE SAME INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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