Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270422

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
922 PM MST THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS..Dry conditions with a warming trend will occur Friday
through next Wednesday. High temperatures by the middle of next week
should approach 100 degrees across the western deserts.


.DISCUSSION...Outstanding late May day with highs in the 70s and
80s. This much cooler than normal high temperature day is associated
with an upper level trof that is currently moving across western New
Mexico. Satellite imagery this evening showed scattered cloud cover
across southern Navajo and Apache counties, dropping slowly to the
south-southeast. Flagstaff radar, as of 9 pm, was showing some 20-35
dbz echoes across southern Apache county. 03z HRRR run keeps any
light shower activity out of far northern Greenlee county thru
midnight. Ran out a quick update to remove any mention of showers in
the whites overnight.

Warmer Friday under west to northwest flow aloft. Enough residual
moisture around for a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm
across the White Mountains in the afternoon.

Although the area will be under a warming trend for the remainder of
May, each day will still be below normal. Pretty much guaranteeing
that May will end up below normal.


A clear to mostly clear sky will prevail through the period except
sct cumulus clouds 10-12k ft agl after 27/18z over the White Mtns.
Sfc wind mostly 10 kts or less until 27/17z...then wly/nwly at 12-16
kts with lcly higher gusts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect weaker westerly winds and a limited threat
for mostly dry thunderstorms over the White Mountains Friday
afternoon. Then,dry with near normal conditions are expected this
weekend and early next week with lighter, more typical diurnal 20-ft





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