Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
822 PM MST SAT OCT 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue this
into the upcoming week. A trough of low pressure moving into the
western states will bring a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area Sunday through Tuesday. Dry conditions
return late Tuesday through Thursday, with another slight chance of
showers on Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Another day, another record high at the Tucson
international airport. Today`s high temperature of 96 degrees was a
daily record and also marked the latest back-to-back 96 degree days
in the calendar year. We`ve seen increased moisture especially near
the international border result in isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Rain amounts
were mainly less than 0.15" but a couple of spots mainly in/near the
Huachuca mountains came in with higher amounts. Latest KEMX radar
imagery depicts the shower activity gradually winding down. With
that said, will keep mentionable PoPs near the international border
through 06Z and then dry thereafter.

Meanwhile, the 00Z KTWC sounding indicated moisture is continuing to
increase with a PWAT value up to 0.84 inch. Lower level moisture
will continue to gradually ramp up Sunday with PWAT up around 1
inch. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are a good bet once
again Sunday and will likely encompass more of the forecast area
compared to today.


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/06Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 9-12k FT from KTUS south and east will generally
become FEW-SCT after 23/06Z as isolated -TSRA/-SHRA dissipates
through Sunday morning. Additional development of isolated
-TSRA/-SHRA is possible again mainly after 24/20Z. Outside of any
thunderstorm wind gusts, surface wind will be less than 12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers will continue to diminish this
evening, then a slight chance of showers is expected again, mainly
Sunday afternoon and continuing into Sunday night. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms then exists Monday and Monday night, with
a few lingering showers early Tuesday in the White Mountains. Dry
conditions will prevail late Tuesday into Friday. Another system
will then bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday
into next weekend. Above normal daytime temperatures are expected
through Friday, with 20-foot winds less than 15 mph.






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