Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260414
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAD
PRETTY MUCH ENDED AS SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SKIES CLEARING
THERE LATE THIS EVENING. CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TUE...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500
MB WILL MOVE INTO WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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