Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 251608
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE OUR
COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL THEN BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A WARM THANKSGIVING. A STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH EXCEPT AT KOLS...WHERE A NELY WIND WITH A
GUST TO 21 MPH WAS OBSERVED. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID
16Z WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 25/12Z KTWC SOUNDING ALSO DEPICTED A
VERY DRY REGIME...WITH TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE 0.10 INCH. 25/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A 592 DM HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST VICINITY 30N/125W AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD NEAR
130W. A N-S TROUGH AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND MODERATE TO
STRONG NLY/NWLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH ANY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY ELY/NELY
WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...
AND A VERY DRY REGIME MAY PRODUCE COLDER TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED MORNING VERSUS LAST NIGHT. WILL ADDRESS THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA TONIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN CONUS WED...THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE AREA THUR. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR WED-
THUR...AND LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE WED NIGHT-THUR
IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAT AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE AZ SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING ERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE MON...ALTHOUGH MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
IN MODERATE-TO-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10
DEGS F BELOW NORMAL. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR
WED...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO BE NEARLY 10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRI
FOLLOWED BY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ADJACENT THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NLY/
NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ELY/NELY AT 5-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH TO EAST 20-FOOT WINDS TO
AROUND 20-25 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





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